2011 Postseason Predictions

After quite possibly the most exciting night in baseball history, it's time for the postseason to provide a decent follow-up act (if possible)! Let's take a look at each series, and how I think they will unfold. First, the National League.


National League Division Series: Arizona Diamondbacks (94-68) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (96-66)

The Brewers cruised to the NL Central crown with a rock solid bullpen, a frightening offense, and a decent starting rotation that is light years better than they were in 2010. This enabled them to win their first ever division crown since 1982, when they were still in the AL East. In addition to this, they won a franchise record 96 games, breaking the old record of 95 set in 1979 and 1982.

Diamondbacks starter Ian Kennedy has been one of
the best (and most underrated) starters in baseball this year.

The Diamondbacks however, became only the third team in baseball history to reach the postseason after losing 97 games the previous year (the 1991 Braves and the 1999 Diamondbacks are the other two). They raced to the division crown featuring a decent offense and a very underrated pitching staff, led by Ian Kennedy, who finished with a ridiculous 21-4 record with a 2.88 ERA.

My prediction: Diamondbacks 3 games to 1. I believe that Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson will be on top of their game, stalling Milwaukee's offense along the way. Arizona's offense will find just enough pop to get by Milwaukee, and that will help lead them to their first NLCS appearance since 2007.

National League Division Series: St. Louis Cardinals (90-72) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (102-60)
The Redbirds were huge underdogs in the NL Central heading into 2011, as many prognosticators believed the Reds and Brewers were better teams (myself included). Honestly, for the first five months, this definitely appeared to be the case, as St. Louis was a whopping 10.5 games behind Atlanta in the Wild Card race as late as August 25. The Cards caught fire after that day, going 22-9 the rest of the way, while the Braves went a dismal 10-20 to miss the playoffs in one of the biggest collapses of all-time.

Phillies pitcher Roy Halladay may not no-hit the Cardinals,
but he'll help lead Philly to the NLCS for the fourth straight year.

The Phillies were just the Phillies, winning their fifth consecutive division title with a franchise-record 102 victories. They did this with the best rotation in baseball leading the way, which masked the fact that their aging, injury-prone offense wasn't much to write home about. However, the Phils slumped toward the end of the season, going on an eight-game losing streak just days after clinching.

My prediction: Phillies 3 games to 2. The Cardinals are a team on fire right now, and they will ride that momentum going into the postseason. St. Louis has also given Philly fits this year, going 6-3 against them in the regular-season. Nonetheless, the Phillies will hang on only because their rotation will be just strong enough for them to extinguish the Cards.

American League Division Series: Detroit Tigers (95-67) vs. New York Yankees (97-65)

Justin Verlander will have a lot on his
hands dealing with New York's potent offense.

The Tigers rode to their first division title since 1987 mainly behind the efforts of starting pitcher Justin Verlander, who has a terrific shot at becoming the first pitcher to win the MVP since 1992. The Tigers also have a solid offense, with AL batting champion Miguel Cabrera leading the way. Also, once you give the ball to closer Jose "Papa Grande" Valverde, it's game over; Valverde went a perfect 49 for 49 in saves this year.

The Yankees, as always, are riding on the heels of their intimidating offense into October, but the guy leading the wasn't Jeter, A-Rod or Teixeira. It was former Tiger Curtis Granderson, who hit an unprecedented 41 homers and drove in 119. The Yanks also stayed afloat with a piecemeal rotation behind ace C.C. Sabathia, as White Sox castoffs Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia have come through big for them this year.

My prediction: Yankees 3 games to 1. The Tigers will steal game one behind Verlander, but the lack of depth in their rotation will do them in against New York's mighty offense.

American League Division Series: Tampa Bay Rays (91-71) vs. Texas Rangers (96-66)

The Rangers will need for C.J. Wilson to
be on top of his game all throughout
the postseason.

Tampa Bay made their third postseason appearance in four years behind a comeback for the ages (and a collapse for the ages from the Red Sox). However, this should not mask the fact that they have one of the best rotations in the game, and all of their starters are under 30! Their team ERA of 3.58 was the second-best in the American League, only trailing the Angels' 3.57. Their offense isn't much to write home about, but then again, it wasn't last year, and they still managed to win 96 games. Simply put, their hitters know how to drive people in when it counts.

The Rangers theoretically are still the team to beat in the American League. After all, they are the defending American League champions and they are back in the playoffs. They reached the postseason again behind some decent pitching and an intimidating offense. As a team, the Rangers hit an AL-best .283.

My prediction: Rangers 3 games to 2. The Rays are on fire right now, but Texas will certainly cool them off behind their blistering offense and solid pitching. Like last year, the Rangers will need all five games to take out the Rays.

The Rest of the Postseason:
ALCS: Rangers over Yankees, 4 games to 2.
NLCS: Phillies over Diamondbacks, 4 games to 2.
World Series: Rangers over Phillies, 4 games to 3.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Now, for my other award predictions:
AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
AL Rookie of the Year: Jeremy Hellickson, Tampa Bay Rays
NL Rookie of the Year: Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
AL Manager of the Year: Joe Maddon, Tampa Bay Rays
NL Manager of the Year: Kirk Gibson, Arizona Diamondbacks

Also, for your reading pleasure, here's Tom Verducci's brilliant recap of last night's drama. (Sports Illustrated)

That's all for now. Take care, and enjoy the playoffs tomorrow!

The Cardinals, Angels and Rays are very much alive

Remember when I was with you last week, and I mentioned that if the Cardinals were to survive their series in Philly, they would have a great shot at making the postseason? Well, the Redbirds are one step closer to reaching October, as they took three of four from the Phillies in shocking fashion. In addition to that, St. Louis returned home and took the first two games in their series against the Mets, leaving them only 1.5 games behind the Braves with seven left to play.

The Cardinals' final seven games include their series finale against the Mets today, along with three against the Cubs and Astros. The Braves have just six left, three against Washington and three against the Phillies. With the relentless pace the Cardinals are on, it seems as if October is a mere formality for them at this point.

However, history tells us that there are reasons for Braves fans to remain optimistic about holding on to their Wild Card lead. Remember back in 2005, when it seemed like the Indians were on their way to the postseason with their ridiculous 38-16 record in August and September? It did not come to pass, as the Tribe lost six of their last seven to miss the postseason. Three of those losses came against the lowly Royals and Devil Rays, while the other three came against the White Sox, who basically started their Triple-A roster against Cleveland after clinching the Central.

In 2008, the Twins looked like they were well on their way to another AL Central  Division title after sweeping the White Sox in the penultimate series of the season. However, the Twins lost two of their last three against Kansas City, setting up a one game playoff against the White Sox which they would lose 1-0.

While this bit of history won't provide much comfort or consolation for Braves fans at this point, it just serves as a reminder that teams who go crazy in September don't always reach October. However, the Cardinals were 8.5 games behind Atlanta on September 5. Since then, they are 12-2, while Atlanta is 6-10. If the Cardials do pull this off, it will likely go down as perhaps the biggest September collapse/comeback in baseball history.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
There is also high drama unfolding in the American League Wild Card race, as Boston's free fall continues. The Carmines dropped three of four against the Baltimore Orioles this week, and have seen their Wild Card lead dwindle down to just 2.5 games over the Angels and Rays. On September 3, the Red Sox had a nine-game lead over the Rays in the Wild Card and a 9.5 game lead over the Angels. They could potentially upstage the Braves' NL collapse if they fall far enough.

Plus, this is a collapse in every sense of the term. You can still give credit to the Cardinals for getting hot at the right time, but the Rays are just 10-7 since September 3, while the Angels are 10-6 since that date. The Red Sox's record since then? A ghastly 4-14. Here's how the final games shape up for each of the three AL teams in the hunt for the Wild Card:

Joe Maddon could have his team on the brink of a historic
comeback.

Boston Red Sox:
Friday 9/23 @ Yankees
Saturday 9/24 @ Yankees
Sunday 9/25 @ Yankees
Monday 9/26 @ Orioles
Tuesday 9/27 @ Orioles
Wednesday 9/28 @ Orioles

Los Angeles Angels:
Thursday 9/22 @ Blue Jays
Friday 9/23 vs. A's
Saturday 9/24 vs. A's
Sunday 9/25 vs. A's
Monday 9/26 vs. Rangers
Tuesday 9/27 vs. Rangers
Wednesday 9/28 vs. Rangers

Tampa Bay Rays:
Thursday 9/22 @ Yankees
Friday 9/23 vs. Blue Jays
Saturday 9/24 vs. Blue Jays
Sunday 9/25 vs. Blue Jays
Monday 9/26 vs. Yankees
Tuesday 9/27 vs. Yankees
Wednesday 9/28 vs. Yankees

Looking at the schedules, it's basically a push for all three teams. Everybody faces somebody who they will have some difficulty beating. If I had to pick one team that has the toughest schedule to finish the season, it's the Angels, only because they will be battling the Rangers for the division crown in those final three games (should they still be in contention for the AL West title).

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What could also unfold from all of this is the ever-elusive three-way tie, which has never occurred in MLB history. From what I could ascertain, there have only been six instances in which there was nearly a three-way tie in MLB history:

2010 National League:
San Francisco Giants: 92-70 (NL West Champion)
Atlanta Braves: 91-71 (NL Wild Card)
San Diego Padres: 90-72

Former Padres First Baseman
Adrian Gonzalez

San Diego, after having a dreadful September, was placed in a position where they had to sweep the Giants to stay alive. The Padres took the first two games from the Giants, and if they would have won the season finale, the first three-way tie in MLB history would have taken place. Since the Giants lost the season series to the Padres, they would have traveled to San Diego to face the Padres in a one-game playoff to determine the champion of the NL West. The loser of that game would have traveled to Atlanta to play the Braves for the Wild Card title the following night. This "mini-playoff" would have put the entire NL postseason on hold, as the Phillies and Reds would have awaited the results of this extra postsesaon round.




---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1967 American League:
Boston Red Sox: 92-70 (AL Champions)
Detroit Tigers: 91-71
Minnesota Twins: 91-71
Chicago White Sox: 89-73

Carl Yastrzemski's Triple Crown season in 1967
helped lead Boston to the American League Pennant.

This year nearly featured a four-way tie for the American League crown, as MLB was still two years away from implementing the playoff system. The team with the best record went to the World Series, and entering Wednesday, September 27, here's how the standings looked:

Minnesota Twins: 91-68
Boston Red Sox: 90-69, 1 GB
Chicago White Sox: 89-68, 1 GB
Detroit Tigers: 89-69, 1.5 GB

The White Sox crumbled badly unfortunately, losing their final five games to the dreadful Kansas City A's and Washington Senators. The Tigers hung tough, splitting a four game series with the California Angels to finish 91-71. The Twins would lose on September 27 to the Angels 5-1, setting up a tense, two-game series in Boston to determine the American League Pennant. The Red Sox would win both games against the Twins to capture their first American League Pennant since 1946.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1964 National League:
St. Louis Cardinals: 93-69 (NL Champions)
Cincinnati Reds: 92-70
Philadelphia Phillies: 92-70

Phillies manager Gene Mauch watched things spiral
out of control during the end of the 1964 season.

This was the year of the infamous "Philly Phold," as the Phillies led the National League by 6.5 games with 12 left. Philadelphia would lose 10 in a row after that, with manager Gene Mauch going into panic mode, starting Jim Bunning and Chris Short (his two best starters) a combined five times during the losing streak. The Phillies managed to win their final two games against the Reds but it was too little, too late. St. Louis stormed back to capture their first NL flag since 1946. If the Cardinals lost their final regular-season game against the Mets, there would have been a three-way tie in the National League.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1964 American League:
New York Yankees: 99-63 (AL Champions)
Chicago White Sox: 98-64
Baltimore Orioles: 97-65

Hall of Famer and relief specialist Hoyt Wilhelm
was one of many phenomenal pitchers on Chicago's
staff in 1964.

What a year! This year would be the Yankees' swan song, as they would capture their 15th pennant in 18 seasons, but not without some drama. The White Sox and Orioles hung tough with the Bronx Bombers all summer. New York caught fire in September, going 22-6 during that month, while the White Sox went 14-10 and the Orioles went 15-13. The Yankees, despite their impressive September mark, survived a late scare from the White Sox, who finished the year with a 10-2 kick, including a nine-game winning streak. It's a little complex explaining how there would have been a three-way tie that year, but I'll do my best.

The Orioles would have needed to sweep their doubleheader against Washington on September 30, which would have them finish the season on an eight-game winning streak;

The Yankees would have needed to lose two of three against Cleveland in their final series to finish 98-64.

New York would ultimately lose the World Series to St. Louis, and with an aging roster, would fall into oblivion for the next decade.




---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1908 National League:

Fred Merkle was just 19 years old in 1908, but
he unfortunately made a baserunning mistake that
would haunt him for the rest of his life.

Chicago Cubs: 99-55 (NL Champions)
New York Giants: 98-56
Pittsburgh Pirates 98-56

The Cubs captured their third consecutive National League crown, thanks in large part to Fred Merkle's "boner" in the Polo Grounds earlier in the season. It would take a ton of time to explain, but if you want to find out more about Fred's baserunning blunder, please go HERE. Since the two teams remained tied at the end of the season, they had to replay the "Fred Merkle Game" at the end of the season as a de facto one game playoff, which the Cubs won.









--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1908 American League:

Cleveland's Addie Joss pitched just the
fourth perfect game in MLB history in 1908.

Detroit Tigers: 90-63
Cleveland Naps (Indians): 90-64
Chicago White Sox: 88-64

Why does it seem like the Sox are always on the bad end of these things? Anyway, the Tigers captured the American League Pennant by a half-game (which wasn't nearly as controversial as their "half-game AL East Championship" 64 years later, but that's a story for another day). The highlight of this pennant race was when Cleveland's Addie Joss tossed a perfect game against the White Sox on Friday, October 2, to keep the Naps just a half-game behind Detroit with five left to play. However, the Tigers ultimately kept Cleveland at bay, as the Naps lost two of three against the St. Louis Browns at the end of the season, while tying the first game of the series against them.



----------------------------------------------------------------------------

It may be a long shot, but here's to hoping that we can see the first-ever three-way tie this year in the American League. That's all for now. Take care.

Two more races in MLB, Shades of 1968 and The Pirates

Things have become considerably more interesting since the last time I joined you. Both the Tampa Bay Rays and St. Louis Cardinals have fought their way back into contention, trying desperately to do their best 2007 Rockies impressions. Despite their back-to-back losses against Baltimore, the Rays begin a crucial four-game series in Boston tonight, as they trail the Red Sox by four in the Wild Card race.

Tampa has closed the gap in the AL Wild Card,
but can they overkate Boston?

Meanwhile, in the National League, the Cardinals continue to put pressure on Milwaukee and Atlanta, as they trail the Braves by 4.5 in the Wild Card and the Brewers by 5.5 in the Central. The Cardinals are 7-3 in their last 10 games, while the Braves and Brewers are both 4-6 in their last 10 contests.

Who has the better shot at making a comeback and reaching the postseason? Right now, I would have to say Tampa Bay, only because they still control their own destiny. They have four games left with the Red Sox and a whopping seven left against the Yankees, so they can not only set their sights on the Wild Card, but the division title as well. The Cardinals however, are not so fortunate. They do not have any  games left against the Brewers or the Braves, meaning that their margin for error is very small, and they do not control their own fate. If the Braves go 6-6 in their final 12 games, the Cardinals will need to go 11-2 to force a one-game playoff. If Milwaukee goes 6-6 in their final 12, St. Louis will need to go 12-1 to tie them, both of which are very tall orders.

Two losses are all the Cards can affford
at this point.

They also begin a four-game series in Philadelphia tomorrow, which further complicates matters. If they escape Philadelphia with a series victory or a split (barring how the Brewers and Braves fare this weekend), the Cards may have a decent shot at coming back, as they finish the season out against the Mets, Cubs and Astros. With the way things stand right now, I would say Brewers fans do not need to be too concerned. However, if the Cardinals escape Philadelphia without a series loss and the Braves fail to gain any ground, then there might be cause for concern in Atlanta.






--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Shades of 1968

On the flip side of things are the Detroit Tigers, who are currently riding a 12-game winning streak, their best since 1934. After their dismantling of my White Sox, they can wrap up the AL Central race as early as tonight, provided that they win and the Indians lose. If not tonight, then things will definitely be wrapped up by Sunday.

Another thing to look at with the Tigers' recent surge is whether or not they have a shot at finishing with the AL's best record. Right now, they currently sit at 87-62, just 3.5 behind the Yankees. If Detroit can stay hot, they have a decent shot at delivering one of the bigger surprises of the postseason before it even begins: taking home the best record in the AL. The Tigers have not finished with the AL's best record since 1987, so we'll see.

Tigers pitcher Denny McLain, who went 31-6 with a 1.96 ERA in 1968.

On another note, this team has some eerie resemblances to the 1968 squad that won it all. The '68 Tigers also got white-hot in September, reeling off an 11-game win streak between the 9th and the 21st of that month. Motown's crew in '68 also featured Denny McLain, MLB's last 30-game winner, who would take home both the Cy Young and MVP award in the American League that season. Justin Verlander isn't going to win 30 games, but he still has an outside shot at becoming the first Tigers pitcher to 25 wins since Mickey Lolich in 1971 and to win the AL MVP, which no Tigers pitcher has won since Willie Hernandez in 1984. This year's AL Cy Young is already a forgone conclusion, and it will be a shock if Verlander does not win it.

The '68 Tigers and this year's squad also received big offensive contributions from their catchers. The '68 Tigers got a big year out of Bill Freehan, who finished with a .263 average, 25 homers and 84 RBIs during "the year of the pitcher," when offense was scarce and the AL's best batting average was .301. Alex Avila is having a terrific year behind the plate for Detroit, as he has a .301 batting average, 19 home runs, 77 RBIs and is slugging .577. Also ironic is the fact that both catchers started the All-Star Game for the AL, Freehan at the Astrodome, Avila at Chase Field.

The '68 squad also clinched early, winning the AL on September 17 and finishing 12 games ahead of the Baltimore Orioles in what would be the final year before divisional play (the team with the best record went to the World Series from 1903-1968). This year's Tigers will definitely clinch their division early too, and if they cool off for just two days, it could very well be on the 17th too.


Since I'm teetering into the realm of speculation, I'll end the comparisons on this note. The Tigers in '68, despite finishing with 103 victories, were underdogs in the World Series against the defending-World Champion St. Louis Cardinals, who boasted MLB's best pitcher that year, Bob Gibson. Detroit went down 3-1 in that year's series before making an improbable comeback to win it all, defeating Bob Gibson in Game Seven. Would it not be crazy if something similar were to happen this year, if the Tigers were to face Philadelphia (I know they aren't the defending champions, but they are the most comparable NL team), and pull off a seven-game series victory, defeating Roy Halladay in Game Seven? I know, I'm stretching here, but baseball can be a funny game sometimes.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Oh those Pirates

The Bucs clinched their 19th consecutive losing season with a 3-2 loss against the Cardinals last night. I know Pittsburgh fans have likely gotten used to the losing seasons, but this one had to sting a little bit more, considering they were in a tie for first as late as July 25. However, the Bucs have not been the same since their 19-inning loss in Atlanta featuring quite possibly the worst call I have ever witnessed during a Major League game. They have not been the same since that ill-fated evening.

                                Jerry Meals, how could you?

However, there are some positives to be taken from this season. For starters, they will not lose 100 games this year, and their final record will stand as a significant improvement over last year. The Bucs still need pitching help badly, but Andrew McCutchen and Neil Walker look like they can both be the two players Pittsburgh can build their franchise around. If you also factor in that Pedro Alvarez and Jose Tabata both have the potential to improve (despite their dismal performances this year), their streak of losing seasons can end very soon.

That's all for now. Take care.

The 30 Team/30 Day Report Cards: Day 29- Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay Rays
Record: 96-66 (AL East Champions, one game ahead of New York).

Batting Leaders
Batting Average: Carl Crawford (.307)
Home Runs: Carlos Pena (28)
RBIs: Evan Longoria (107)
On-base Percentage: Evan Longoria (.372)

Pitching Leaders
Wins: David Price (19)
Strikeouts: David Price (188)
Innings Pitched: David Price (208.2)
ERA: David Price (2.72). Bullpen- Joaquin Benoit (1.34).
WHIP: David Price (1.19). Bullpen- Joaquin Benoit (0.68).
Saves: Rafael Soriano (45)

Highlight of the Season: On the final day of the season, the Rays were able to clinch the AL East with a 3-2, 12 inning victory over the Royals in Kansas City. A Yankees loss to the Red Sox that same day would make the Division Title an outright one for the Rays. Another moment worthy of mention was Matt Garza tossing the first no-hitter in franchise history before a nationwide television audience on July 26 against the Tigers.

Lowlight of the Season: A season that appeared to be destined for greatness came to an abrupt end on October 12, as the Rays lost 5-1 to the Rangers in Game Five of the ALDS.

The Lowdown:
The writing was on the wall entering the 2010 season, as many people knew that the window of opportunity for Tampa Bay to win a championship was closing quickly. Many of their key players were about to become free agents, meaning that it was imperative that the team get off to a quick start in order to keep those people from being jettisoned off to wealthier contenders. The Rays did not disappoint though, as they got off to a fast start and never looked back, capturing their second division title in three years behind fantastic pitching and an offense that was good, despite their times of collective instability. Keeping the mighty Yankees at bay in the AL East is no easy task for a team with a payroll as small as Tampa Bay's, and in order to make 2010 a season to remember, they had to build off of the success they had in 2008 and win the World Series.

Unfortunately for Tampa Bay, they would be stymied by the fantastic pitching of the Texas Rangers during the Division Series. Even though the series loss was disappointing, the Rays did not go down without a fight, as they came back from a 2-0 deficit to force a Game Five at home. However, waiting for them in Game Five was Rangers ace Cliff Lee, and he was on top of his game that night, going all nine in shutting down the Rays 5-1. With many of their key players gone, it will be a difficult task to keep in the cutthroat AL East once again entering 2011.

Offense:
The Rays' offense last year was puzzling, to say the least. They finished third in MLB in runs with 802, 10th in on-base percentage at a clip of .333 and 12th in home runs with 160. However, they were one of the worst teams in baseball batting average-wise, finishing 27th in the bigs at a clip of .247. Their lack of contact hitting no doubt contributed to some of the outstanding pitching performances that were tossed against them, including Dallas Braden's perfect game, Edwin Jackson's no-hitter, and Brandon Morrow's 17 strikeout outing. Despite that, the Rays featured some great offensive weapons, including left fielder Carl Crawford, who made his final season in a Tampa Bay uniform a memorable one, hitting .307 with 19 home runs, 90 RBIs and 47 steals. The other offensive threat in the lineup was obviously Evan Longoria, who had another great campaign, hitting .294 with 22 home runs and 104 RBIs.

Other than that, there weren't many other eye-catching performers in their lineup. First baseman Carlos Pena had an absolutely bizarre season, hitting 28 home runs while driving in 84, in spite of a horrific .196 batting average. Outfielder B.J. Upton flashed some power, hitting 18 home runs, but his .237 average and .322 on-base percentage make you wonder if he will ever become the player many projected him to be coming out of the minors.

I suppose the lineup is effective, when you consider that there were only two teams in baseball that scored more runs (Boston and New York), but it's almost scary to think how many runs they would have scored if they hit better collectively.
Final Grade: B+

Pitching:
Tampa Bay's strong point last year was in their pitching, and the young David Price led the way, finishing 19-6 with a 2.72 ERA and 188 strikeouts in his second full big league season. His performance last year certainly earns him the right to be mentioned as one of the best pitchers in the American League right now, and if it wasn't for Felix Hernandez's outstanding season, Price could have been the first Rays pitcher to win a Cy Young Award. Even though James Shields, Jeff Niemann and Wade Davis were fairly average last year, Matt Garza put together a good performance on the hill, going 15-10 with a 3.91 ERA in 204.2 innings, while tossing the franchise's first no-hitter on July 26.

In the bullpen, the Rays had a stable of outstanding arms, and their collective ERA of 3.33 (third in MLB) certainly shows that. Manager Joe Maddon wasn't afraid to go to the bullpen with regularity, and you can see that in the stats, as five relievers made 60 or more appearances last year. The two major standouts in this great bullpen were easily Joaquin Benoit and closer Rafael Soriano, who finished with ERAs of 1.34 and 1.73 respectively. Both also featured WHIPs under one, as Benoit led the team with a 0.68 clip, while Soriano wasn't far behind him at 0.80. Simply put, there weren't too many people getting on base late in the ballgame with those two on the hill. Soriano also finished with 45 saves, good for first in the American League and third in MLB.

Overall, Tampa Bay finished eighth in ERA (3.73), third in quality starts (95), third in WHIP (1.26) and fourth in "batting average against" (.244). Well done!
Final Grade: A+

Wild Card: Oh those hitting woes
Much like old-school Christmas lights, it seemed as if Tampa Bay's lineup would collectively go out if one key player was not performing well. They were no-hit twice, first by Oakland's Dallas Braden on Mother's Day (a perfect game) then in the following month by Arizona's Edwin Jackson, who walked a whopping nine batters in his performance. They were nearly no-hit a third time in August, when Toronto's Brandon Morrow came within one out of history before Evan Longoria broke up the party. Morrow would still finish with a ridiculous 17 strikeouts, a MLB-high in 2010. Ouch.
Final Grade: D

Overall:
Was 2010 the last hurrah for the Rays? Time will only tell.
Final Grade: A

Check back soon for the report card on the Philadelphia Phillies!

Interview with Rays beat writer Bill Chastain

Bill Chastain joins myself and Steve Bohné on "Breakfast and Baseball" to discuss his new book "Peachtree Corvette Club," as well as the Tampa Bay Rays.

Air date: 10/28/10

Podcast Powered By Podbean

AL Cy Young Award candidates: who gets your vote?

We continue our look at the potential award winners of 2010 by taking a glance at the candidates for the American League Cy Young Award.

Stats are as of September 20:


3.) Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
12-11, 2.35 ERA, 222 Ks, 1.07 WHIP

You might be wondering why you're seeing Felix Hernandez in this list. You might even be saying to yourself, "why is a pitcher with a record barely over .500 being considered for the Cy Young?" Well, this is indicative of the changing voting trends among the writers. They no longer look at just part of the package in wins and losses, rather, they look at the pitcher's entire body of work, regardless of his team's place in the standings. The precedent was set with Zack Greinke winning the award last year for the last place-Royals, despite his modest win total of 16.

Nobody disputed the fact that Greinke was the best pitcher in the AL last year, and this year, you can almost make the same case for Hernandez, who is putting together a spectacular year for the last place-Mariners. He is currently leading the AL in ERA with a mark of 2.35, and he is also the league leader in innings pitched (233.2) and strikeouts (222). His walks and hits per innings pitched (aka WHIP) is third in the AL at a spectacular 1.07.

So what's the deal with Hernandez? Why isn't he getting the same amount of publicity that Greinke received in Kansas City last year? Well, as unfair as it might sound, Hernandez did not get off to the blistering start that Greinke got off to last year. Greinke went his first four starts before giving up a single earned run. He also went into July before seeing his ERA rise above two. Hernandez, on the other hand, saw his ERA peak around four in early May, and it has never fallen below two all year. While Hernandez's year is fantastic, it doesn't quite match up to Greinke's dominance in '09, even if "King Felix" is the league leader in several major statistical categories.


2.) David Price, Tampa Bay Rays
17-6, 2.79 ERA, 172 Ks, 1.19 WHIP

In just his second full big league season, David Price is starting to reach the potential that everybody predicted he would get to. He is quickly becoming the ace of the Rays' loaded pitching staff, as he is third in the AL in wins (17), third in ERA (2.79), and is tied for tenth in WHIP with a 1.19 mark. With the season he's having, and with Tampa Bay essentially being assured of a playoff spot, Price has the chance to become the first player in team history to win the Cy Young Award.


1.) CC Sabathia, New York Yankees
20-6, 3.05 ERA, 183 Ks, 1.18 WHIP

Sabathia, in my opinion, has been the top pitcher in the American League this year, and I believe that he will wind up becoming the Yankees' first Cy Young winner in nine years. He reached the 20-win plateau for the first time in his career in his last start against Baltimore back on September 18, and that win also gave him the major-league lead. He is also second in the AL in innings pitched (224.0), sixth in strikeouts (183), sixth in ERA (3.05) and ninth in WHIP (1.18). While Felix Hernandez has him beat in all of the aforementioned categories except for wins, some credit has to be given to Sabathia for putting up comparable numbers in the thick of a pennant race. Sabathia has also had a greater percentage of starts against tougher opponents in the cutthroat American League East, where he had to take on the likes of the Rays, Red Sox, and even the Toronto Blue Jays, who lead the AL in home runs by a whopping 29 over the next best team. While it is not Hernandez's fault that his team is terrible and that his division is sub-par (sans Texas), Sabathia should not be penalized for putting up comparable numbers in the toughest division in baseball.

Check back soon for the NL Cy Young Award candidates!

The 30 Day/30 Team Report Cards: Day 16- Tampa Bay Rays

Hello once again everybody! It's time to head south, as today's report card will be issued to the Tampa Bay Rays.

Tampa Bay Rays:
Record: 84-78 (Third place in the AL East, 19 games behind New York).

Batting Leaders:
Batting Average: Jason Bartlett (.320)
Home Runs: Carlos Pena (39)
RBIs: Evan Longoria (113)
On-base Percentage: Ben Zobrist (.405)

Pitching Leaders:
Wins: Jeff Niemann (13)
ERA: Jeff Niemann (3.94). Bullpen- J.P. Howell (2.84).
Strikeouts: Matt Garza (189)
Innings Pitched: James Shields (219.2)
WHIP: Matt Garza (1.26)
Saves: J.P. Howell (17)

Highlight of the Season: Carl Crawford's record-tying six stolen bases against Boston on May 3. He joined Eric Young (1996), Otis Nixon (1991) and Hall of Famer Eddie Collins (twice in 1912) as the only ones to turn the trick. Tampa Bay won the game, 5-3.

Lowlight of the Season: An 11-game losing streak from September 3-13 that took the team out of contention.

The Lowdown:
With the dawn of the 2009 season came high expectations for this young franchise that experienced glory for the first time in 2008. Their pennant run that year could easily rank as one of the most improbable stories in baseball history, as they shocked the world by winning the AL East and by taking care of the White Sox and Red Sox to win their first-ever American League Pennant. Even though the Cinderella season would end abruptly at the hands of the Phillies, things had to be looking up for this team as 2009 began. With the Yankees beefing themselves up by adding more big name free agents, and with the Red Sox determined to avenge their ALCS loss, the AL East was shaping up to be a battle of epic proportions.

The Rays stumbled out of the gate in 2009 though, as they went 9-14 in the month of April. In a division that is as unforgiving as the AL East, this is unacceptable if you want to win it. They made up for this slow start by going 35-21 in May and June to get back into contention. They were still hovering around contention in July and August, going 27-24 before crumbling in September with a dismal 11-17 record. Adding insult to injury, first baseman Carlos Pena broke two of his fingers after getting drilled by a pitch against the Yankees on September 7. With their best hitter down to injury and with the Yankees and Red Sox running on cruise control once again, Tampa Bay's season was over.

Offense:
The recipe to the Rays offense had a little bit of everything in it. They featured heaping doses of power (Evan Longoria, Carlos Pena and Ben Zobrist) and speed (Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton and Jason Bartlett), to go along with a substantial amount of contact hitting (four of their regulars hit .280 or better). As a whole, this team scored 803 runs, which was good enough for seventh in MLB. This was thanks in large part to the overall versatility in the lineup, which was mentioned earlier. Having that much diversity in your lineup means that you can beat teams in several different ways, instead of being one-dimensional like many other lineups in baseball. They are practically the 1980s St. Louis Cardinals reincarnated, with more power.

Listing all of the standout performers in the Rays' lineup will take a substantial amount of time, so I'll just narrow it down to the two most vital players in their lineup. In my opinion, those two important figures are Carlos Pena and Evan Longoria. Even though some of you who may be reading this are thinking "why not Carl Crawford," I truly believe that this lineup would be substantially weaker without the presence of those two. Pena, despite his low batting average of .227, put together another fine season of power at the plate, drilling 39 home runs and driving in 100, all while missing most of the final month of the season. Longoria, on the other hand, put together a fine sophomore season of his own at the plate, going deep 33 times while driving in 113, to go along with a solid .281 batting average. While Tampa Bay's lineup features good contact hitting and a lot of speed, the power is what makes the engines really churn. Put all of that together, and you have a lethal lineup that pitchers cannot relax against during any point of the order, one through nine.

In addition to finishing seventh in total runs scored, the Rays also finished sixth in MLB in homers (199), tied for 11th in batting average (.263), and tied for sixth in on-base percentage (.343). As far as overall completeness goes, this is arguably one of the five best lineups in baseball. Makes Mark Buehrle's perfect game against them all the more impressive, does it not?
Final Grade: A+

Pitching:
Alas, we have reached the Achilles' heel of Tampa Bay in 2009, and that was their pitching. The key to their success in 2008 was the progression of the young starters, to go along with a vastly improved bullpen. However, this year's rotation regressed a bit, probably due in part to overall fatigue from the amount of innings they threw last year. Their staff ERA, as a whole, fell from third in 2008 (3.82) to 14th (4.33), and the total amount of runs they gave up increased to 754, up from 671 last year. The two biggest drop-offs in the starting rotation were Andy Sonnanstine and Scott Kazmir, who each saw their ERAs balloon to over five. In Kazmir's case, his regression was probably a deciding factor in him getting traded to the Angels on August 28, in one of the more puzzling moves during the season.

Despite the regression of their staff as a whole, one pitcher in their rotation only got better, and that was rookie Jeff Niemann. He was part of their rotation from day one, starting in 30 games and compiling a 13-6 record with a decent 3.94 ERA. His performance was good enough for him to receive Rookie of the Year consideration, and it was certainly good enough to ensure him of a spot in the rotation for 2010.

Their bullpen was still pretty solid, as J.P. Howell and Dan Wheeler led the way this past season. They each made 69 appearances, while recording ERAs of 2.84 and 3.28, respectively. While the blown saves were conspicuously high for Howell (he had a whopping eight of them), this also came from a guy who is ordinarily not a closer. The lack of a true "lights-out" guy to close out games in their 'pen is just another thing that hurt their pitching last year.

Another thing that hurt their 'pen last year was the regression of hard-throwing righty Grant Balfour. In 2008, he was one of the best relievers in baseball, putting together a 1.54 ERA in 58.1 innings. This year, he was significantly worse, as he recorded a 4.81 ERA in 67.1 innings. If there is any evidence as to how relievers can be unpredictable from one year to the next, this certainly has to be it.

Overall, Tampa Bay's pitching staff was not bad by any means. In fact, I wouldn't even call them mediocre, because they were still pretty solid as a unit. However, they play in the AL East, which is very unforgiving. If there is any tiny slip-up in any part of your team, chances are you will be on the outside looking in once the postseason starts.
Final Grade: B-

Wild Card: Team Speed
Playing a game against Tampa Bay is like coming out for a track meet. They led the majors in stolen bases this year with 194, a staggering 45 more than the next-fastest team, the Texas Rangers. Also, once they steal, they don't get caught much either, as their 76 percent success rate tied for fourth in MLB, too. Left fielder Carl Crawford led the team with 60 steals, followed by center fielder B.J. Upton's 42. Shortstop Jason Bartlett even got in on the act, stealing 30 of his own. Having this much team speed can certainly get into the head of just about any pitcher in baseball.
Final Grade: A+

Overall:
Don't let this team fool you by their final record; this is a really good team. Their pitching might have slipped a bit, but their lineup was still fantastic this past season. If their pitching bounces back, expect this team to be right in the thick of things next year. They are not going anywhere.
Final Grade: B

Check back tomorrow for the report card on the Seattle Mariners!