2011 Postseason Predictions

After quite possibly the most exciting night in baseball history, it's time for the postseason to provide a decent follow-up act (if possible)! Let's take a look at each series, and how I think they will unfold. First, the National League.


National League Division Series: Arizona Diamondbacks (94-68) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (96-66)

The Brewers cruised to the NL Central crown with a rock solid bullpen, a frightening offense, and a decent starting rotation that is light years better than they were in 2010. This enabled them to win their first ever division crown since 1982, when they were still in the AL East. In addition to this, they won a franchise record 96 games, breaking the old record of 95 set in 1979 and 1982.

Diamondbacks starter Ian Kennedy has been one of
the best (and most underrated) starters in baseball this year.

The Diamondbacks however, became only the third team in baseball history to reach the postseason after losing 97 games the previous year (the 1991 Braves and the 1999 Diamondbacks are the other two). They raced to the division crown featuring a decent offense and a very underrated pitching staff, led by Ian Kennedy, who finished with a ridiculous 21-4 record with a 2.88 ERA.

My prediction: Diamondbacks 3 games to 1. I believe that Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson will be on top of their game, stalling Milwaukee's offense along the way. Arizona's offense will find just enough pop to get by Milwaukee, and that will help lead them to their first NLCS appearance since 2007.

National League Division Series: St. Louis Cardinals (90-72) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (102-60)
The Redbirds were huge underdogs in the NL Central heading into 2011, as many prognosticators believed the Reds and Brewers were better teams (myself included). Honestly, for the first five months, this definitely appeared to be the case, as St. Louis was a whopping 10.5 games behind Atlanta in the Wild Card race as late as August 25. The Cards caught fire after that day, going 22-9 the rest of the way, while the Braves went a dismal 10-20 to miss the playoffs in one of the biggest collapses of all-time.

Phillies pitcher Roy Halladay may not no-hit the Cardinals,
but he'll help lead Philly to the NLCS for the fourth straight year.

The Phillies were just the Phillies, winning their fifth consecutive division title with a franchise-record 102 victories. They did this with the best rotation in baseball leading the way, which masked the fact that their aging, injury-prone offense wasn't much to write home about. However, the Phils slumped toward the end of the season, going on an eight-game losing streak just days after clinching.

My prediction: Phillies 3 games to 2. The Cardinals are a team on fire right now, and they will ride that momentum going into the postseason. St. Louis has also given Philly fits this year, going 6-3 against them in the regular-season. Nonetheless, the Phillies will hang on only because their rotation will be just strong enough for them to extinguish the Cards.

American League Division Series: Detroit Tigers (95-67) vs. New York Yankees (97-65)

Justin Verlander will have a lot on his
hands dealing with New York's potent offense.

The Tigers rode to their first division title since 1987 mainly behind the efforts of starting pitcher Justin Verlander, who has a terrific shot at becoming the first pitcher to win the MVP since 1992. The Tigers also have a solid offense, with AL batting champion Miguel Cabrera leading the way. Also, once you give the ball to closer Jose "Papa Grande" Valverde, it's game over; Valverde went a perfect 49 for 49 in saves this year.

The Yankees, as always, are riding on the heels of their intimidating offense into October, but the guy leading the wasn't Jeter, A-Rod or Teixeira. It was former Tiger Curtis Granderson, who hit an unprecedented 41 homers and drove in 119. The Yanks also stayed afloat with a piecemeal rotation behind ace C.C. Sabathia, as White Sox castoffs Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia have come through big for them this year.

My prediction: Yankees 3 games to 1. The Tigers will steal game one behind Verlander, but the lack of depth in their rotation will do them in against New York's mighty offense.

American League Division Series: Tampa Bay Rays (91-71) vs. Texas Rangers (96-66)

The Rangers will need for C.J. Wilson to
be on top of his game all throughout
the postseason.

Tampa Bay made their third postseason appearance in four years behind a comeback for the ages (and a collapse for the ages from the Red Sox). However, this should not mask the fact that they have one of the best rotations in the game, and all of their starters are under 30! Their team ERA of 3.58 was the second-best in the American League, only trailing the Angels' 3.57. Their offense isn't much to write home about, but then again, it wasn't last year, and they still managed to win 96 games. Simply put, their hitters know how to drive people in when it counts.

The Rangers theoretically are still the team to beat in the American League. After all, they are the defending American League champions and they are back in the playoffs. They reached the postseason again behind some decent pitching and an intimidating offense. As a team, the Rangers hit an AL-best .283.

My prediction: Rangers 3 games to 2. The Rays are on fire right now, but Texas will certainly cool them off behind their blistering offense and solid pitching. Like last year, the Rangers will need all five games to take out the Rays.

The Rest of the Postseason:
ALCS: Rangers over Yankees, 4 games to 2.
NLCS: Phillies over Diamondbacks, 4 games to 2.
World Series: Rangers over Phillies, 4 games to 3.

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Now, for my other award predictions:
AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
AL Rookie of the Year: Jeremy Hellickson, Tampa Bay Rays
NL Rookie of the Year: Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
AL Manager of the Year: Joe Maddon, Tampa Bay Rays
NL Manager of the Year: Kirk Gibson, Arizona Diamondbacks

Also, for your reading pleasure, here's Tom Verducci's brilliant recap of last night's drama. (Sports Illustrated)

That's all for now. Take care, and enjoy the playoffs tomorrow!

My top five NL MVP candidates

The end of the MLB regular-season is just five days away and the writers' votes for each MLB award will be submitted by then. Who will get the nod for each award? Obviously I do not have a say, but let's take a look at who I think should be the top five MVP candidates in the National League.

Fifth-place vote: Lance Berkman, St. Louis Cardinals
Through September 23: .300 BA, 31 HRs, 91 RBIs, .411 OBP, .522 SLG
There is no question that Berkman is the slam-dunk NL Comeback Player of the Year. However, his efforts with keeping the Cardinals afloat throughout the season cannot be denied. Even when Albert Pujols was slumping early in the season, Berkman caught fire and found a second life in the Gateway City, putting together numbers that are reminiscent of his glory days in Houston. Right now, the Cardinals are walking the tightrope in the NL Wild Card hunt, but if Berkman weren't there this year, the Cards would be somewhere between the Pirates and Cubs in the Central Division.

Fourth-place vote: Justin Upton, Arizona Diamondbacks
Through September 23: .292 BA, 31 HRs, 88 RBIs, .372 OBP, .536 SLG

The biggest surprise contender of the year would easily go to the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are on the brink of pulling off a shocking upset victory of the NL West over the Giants. A big reason for this has been Justin Upton. He has been carrying the load in a lineup that has far less protection than Lance Berkman, and has put up similar numbers. While the improvement of the bullpen is the biggest reason for Arizona's turnaround, Upton's terrific year in an otherwise average lineup should not go unnoticed.


Third-place vote: Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers
Through September 23: .330 BA, 31 HRs, 104 RBIs, .393 OBP, .584 SLG
Currently, Braun is leading the National League in batting average, and is part of the intimidating one-two punch in Milwaukee's lineup, along with Prince Fielder. Really, you can flip-flop these two on the ballot, and I would have no problem with it at all.

Second-place vote: Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers
Through September 23: .293 BA, 34 HRs, 112 RBIs, .408 OBP, .544 SLG
The other half of Milwaukee's dynamic duo, Fielder is having another terrific year with the playoff-bound Milwaukee Brewers. He's currently third in the National League in both RBIs and on-base percentage, and he's tied for fourth in home runs with Florida's Mike Stanton. Take either Braun or Fielder away from this Milwaukee lineup, and they are a significantly less threatening team offensively.

First-place vote: Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers
Through September 23: .326 BA, 36 HRs, 118 RBIs, .403 OBP, .582 SLG, 40 steals
Yes, he is on a losing team this year. However, a MVP winner does not necessarily have to come from a winning team (see Alex Rodriguez- 2003, Andre Dawson- 1987, Ernie Banks- 1958 and 1959). However, when a player has an offensive year that simply cannot be ignored, voters take notice. Right now, many are beginning to notice the fact that he has a fantastic shot at becoming the National League's first Triple Crown winner since "Ducky" Joe Medwick in 1937. He's only one homer away from tying Albert Pujols for the NL lead, only .004 points away from equaling Braun in the batting average race and he currently leads the league in RBIs by five. Even if he does not achieve the elusive Triple Crown, he'll finish close enough to it to warrant winning the NL MVP.

The Cardinals, Angels and Rays are very much alive

Remember when I was with you last week, and I mentioned that if the Cardinals were to survive their series in Philly, they would have a great shot at making the postseason? Well, the Redbirds are one step closer to reaching October, as they took three of four from the Phillies in shocking fashion. In addition to that, St. Louis returned home and took the first two games in their series against the Mets, leaving them only 1.5 games behind the Braves with seven left to play.

The Cardinals' final seven games include their series finale against the Mets today, along with three against the Cubs and Astros. The Braves have just six left, three against Washington and three against the Phillies. With the relentless pace the Cardinals are on, it seems as if October is a mere formality for them at this point.

However, history tells us that there are reasons for Braves fans to remain optimistic about holding on to their Wild Card lead. Remember back in 2005, when it seemed like the Indians were on their way to the postseason with their ridiculous 38-16 record in August and September? It did not come to pass, as the Tribe lost six of their last seven to miss the postseason. Three of those losses came against the lowly Royals and Devil Rays, while the other three came against the White Sox, who basically started their Triple-A roster against Cleveland after clinching the Central.

In 2008, the Twins looked like they were well on their way to another AL Central  Division title after sweeping the White Sox in the penultimate series of the season. However, the Twins lost two of their last three against Kansas City, setting up a one game playoff against the White Sox which they would lose 1-0.

While this bit of history won't provide much comfort or consolation for Braves fans at this point, it just serves as a reminder that teams who go crazy in September don't always reach October. However, the Cardinals were 8.5 games behind Atlanta on September 5. Since then, they are 12-2, while Atlanta is 6-10. If the Cardials do pull this off, it will likely go down as perhaps the biggest September collapse/comeback in baseball history.

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There is also high drama unfolding in the American League Wild Card race, as Boston's free fall continues. The Carmines dropped three of four against the Baltimore Orioles this week, and have seen their Wild Card lead dwindle down to just 2.5 games over the Angels and Rays. On September 3, the Red Sox had a nine-game lead over the Rays in the Wild Card and a 9.5 game lead over the Angels. They could potentially upstage the Braves' NL collapse if they fall far enough.

Plus, this is a collapse in every sense of the term. You can still give credit to the Cardinals for getting hot at the right time, but the Rays are just 10-7 since September 3, while the Angels are 10-6 since that date. The Red Sox's record since then? A ghastly 4-14. Here's how the final games shape up for each of the three AL teams in the hunt for the Wild Card:

Joe Maddon could have his team on the brink of a historic
comeback.

Boston Red Sox:
Friday 9/23 @ Yankees
Saturday 9/24 @ Yankees
Sunday 9/25 @ Yankees
Monday 9/26 @ Orioles
Tuesday 9/27 @ Orioles
Wednesday 9/28 @ Orioles

Los Angeles Angels:
Thursday 9/22 @ Blue Jays
Friday 9/23 vs. A's
Saturday 9/24 vs. A's
Sunday 9/25 vs. A's
Monday 9/26 vs. Rangers
Tuesday 9/27 vs. Rangers
Wednesday 9/28 vs. Rangers

Tampa Bay Rays:
Thursday 9/22 @ Yankees
Friday 9/23 vs. Blue Jays
Saturday 9/24 vs. Blue Jays
Sunday 9/25 vs. Blue Jays
Monday 9/26 vs. Yankees
Tuesday 9/27 vs. Yankees
Wednesday 9/28 vs. Yankees

Looking at the schedules, it's basically a push for all three teams. Everybody faces somebody who they will have some difficulty beating. If I had to pick one team that has the toughest schedule to finish the season, it's the Angels, only because they will be battling the Rangers for the division crown in those final three games (should they still be in contention for the AL West title).

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What could also unfold from all of this is the ever-elusive three-way tie, which has never occurred in MLB history. From what I could ascertain, there have only been six instances in which there was nearly a three-way tie in MLB history:

2010 National League:
San Francisco Giants: 92-70 (NL West Champion)
Atlanta Braves: 91-71 (NL Wild Card)
San Diego Padres: 90-72

Former Padres First Baseman
Adrian Gonzalez

San Diego, after having a dreadful September, was placed in a position where they had to sweep the Giants to stay alive. The Padres took the first two games from the Giants, and if they would have won the season finale, the first three-way tie in MLB history would have taken place. Since the Giants lost the season series to the Padres, they would have traveled to San Diego to face the Padres in a one-game playoff to determine the champion of the NL West. The loser of that game would have traveled to Atlanta to play the Braves for the Wild Card title the following night. This "mini-playoff" would have put the entire NL postseason on hold, as the Phillies and Reds would have awaited the results of this extra postsesaon round.




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1967 American League:
Boston Red Sox: 92-70 (AL Champions)
Detroit Tigers: 91-71
Minnesota Twins: 91-71
Chicago White Sox: 89-73

Carl Yastrzemski's Triple Crown season in 1967
helped lead Boston to the American League Pennant.

This year nearly featured a four-way tie for the American League crown, as MLB was still two years away from implementing the playoff system. The team with the best record went to the World Series, and entering Wednesday, September 27, here's how the standings looked:

Minnesota Twins: 91-68
Boston Red Sox: 90-69, 1 GB
Chicago White Sox: 89-68, 1 GB
Detroit Tigers: 89-69, 1.5 GB

The White Sox crumbled badly unfortunately, losing their final five games to the dreadful Kansas City A's and Washington Senators. The Tigers hung tough, splitting a four game series with the California Angels to finish 91-71. The Twins would lose on September 27 to the Angels 5-1, setting up a tense, two-game series in Boston to determine the American League Pennant. The Red Sox would win both games against the Twins to capture their first American League Pennant since 1946.




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1964 National League:
St. Louis Cardinals: 93-69 (NL Champions)
Cincinnati Reds: 92-70
Philadelphia Phillies: 92-70

Phillies manager Gene Mauch watched things spiral
out of control during the end of the 1964 season.

This was the year of the infamous "Philly Phold," as the Phillies led the National League by 6.5 games with 12 left. Philadelphia would lose 10 in a row after that, with manager Gene Mauch going into panic mode, starting Jim Bunning and Chris Short (his two best starters) a combined five times during the losing streak. The Phillies managed to win their final two games against the Reds but it was too little, too late. St. Louis stormed back to capture their first NL flag since 1946. If the Cardinals lost their final regular-season game against the Mets, there would have been a three-way tie in the National League.




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1964 American League:
New York Yankees: 99-63 (AL Champions)
Chicago White Sox: 98-64
Baltimore Orioles: 97-65

Hall of Famer and relief specialist Hoyt Wilhelm
was one of many phenomenal pitchers on Chicago's
staff in 1964.

What a year! This year would be the Yankees' swan song, as they would capture their 15th pennant in 18 seasons, but not without some drama. The White Sox and Orioles hung tough with the Bronx Bombers all summer. New York caught fire in September, going 22-6 during that month, while the White Sox went 14-10 and the Orioles went 15-13. The Yankees, despite their impressive September mark, survived a late scare from the White Sox, who finished the year with a 10-2 kick, including a nine-game winning streak. It's a little complex explaining how there would have been a three-way tie that year, but I'll do my best.

The Orioles would have needed to sweep their doubleheader against Washington on September 30, which would have them finish the season on an eight-game winning streak;

The Yankees would have needed to lose two of three against Cleveland in their final series to finish 98-64.

New York would ultimately lose the World Series to St. Louis, and with an aging roster, would fall into oblivion for the next decade.




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1908 National League:

Fred Merkle was just 19 years old in 1908, but
he unfortunately made a baserunning mistake that
would haunt him for the rest of his life.

Chicago Cubs: 99-55 (NL Champions)
New York Giants: 98-56
Pittsburgh Pirates 98-56

The Cubs captured their third consecutive National League crown, thanks in large part to Fred Merkle's "boner" in the Polo Grounds earlier in the season. It would take a ton of time to explain, but if you want to find out more about Fred's baserunning blunder, please go HERE. Since the two teams remained tied at the end of the season, they had to replay the "Fred Merkle Game" at the end of the season as a de facto one game playoff, which the Cubs won.









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1908 American League:

Cleveland's Addie Joss pitched just the
fourth perfect game in MLB history in 1908.

Detroit Tigers: 90-63
Cleveland Naps (Indians): 90-64
Chicago White Sox: 88-64

Why does it seem like the Sox are always on the bad end of these things? Anyway, the Tigers captured the American League Pennant by a half-game (which wasn't nearly as controversial as their "half-game AL East Championship" 64 years later, but that's a story for another day). The highlight of this pennant race was when Cleveland's Addie Joss tossed a perfect game against the White Sox on Friday, October 2, to keep the Naps just a half-game behind Detroit with five left to play. However, the Tigers ultimately kept Cleveland at bay, as the Naps lost two of three against the St. Louis Browns at the end of the season, while tying the first game of the series against them.



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It may be a long shot, but here's to hoping that we can see the first-ever three-way tie this year in the American League. That's all for now. Take care.

Two more races in MLB, Shades of 1968 and The Pirates

Things have become considerably more interesting since the last time I joined you. Both the Tampa Bay Rays and St. Louis Cardinals have fought their way back into contention, trying desperately to do their best 2007 Rockies impressions. Despite their back-to-back losses against Baltimore, the Rays begin a crucial four-game series in Boston tonight, as they trail the Red Sox by four in the Wild Card race.

Tampa has closed the gap in the AL Wild Card,
but can they overkate Boston?

Meanwhile, in the National League, the Cardinals continue to put pressure on Milwaukee and Atlanta, as they trail the Braves by 4.5 in the Wild Card and the Brewers by 5.5 in the Central. The Cardinals are 7-3 in their last 10 games, while the Braves and Brewers are both 4-6 in their last 10 contests.

Who has the better shot at making a comeback and reaching the postseason? Right now, I would have to say Tampa Bay, only because they still control their own destiny. They have four games left with the Red Sox and a whopping seven left against the Yankees, so they can not only set their sights on the Wild Card, but the division title as well. The Cardinals however, are not so fortunate. They do not have any  games left against the Brewers or the Braves, meaning that their margin for error is very small, and they do not control their own fate. If the Braves go 6-6 in their final 12 games, the Cardinals will need to go 11-2 to force a one-game playoff. If Milwaukee goes 6-6 in their final 12, St. Louis will need to go 12-1 to tie them, both of which are very tall orders.

Two losses are all the Cards can affford
at this point.

They also begin a four-game series in Philadelphia tomorrow, which further complicates matters. If they escape Philadelphia with a series victory or a split (barring how the Brewers and Braves fare this weekend), the Cards may have a decent shot at coming back, as they finish the season out against the Mets, Cubs and Astros. With the way things stand right now, I would say Brewers fans do not need to be too concerned. However, if the Cardinals escape Philadelphia without a series loss and the Braves fail to gain any ground, then there might be cause for concern in Atlanta.






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Shades of 1968

On the flip side of things are the Detroit Tigers, who are currently riding a 12-game winning streak, their best since 1934. After their dismantling of my White Sox, they can wrap up the AL Central race as early as tonight, provided that they win and the Indians lose. If not tonight, then things will definitely be wrapped up by Sunday.

Another thing to look at with the Tigers' recent surge is whether or not they have a shot at finishing with the AL's best record. Right now, they currently sit at 87-62, just 3.5 behind the Yankees. If Detroit can stay hot, they have a decent shot at delivering one of the bigger surprises of the postseason before it even begins: taking home the best record in the AL. The Tigers have not finished with the AL's best record since 1987, so we'll see.

Tigers pitcher Denny McLain, who went 31-6 with a 1.96 ERA in 1968.

On another note, this team has some eerie resemblances to the 1968 squad that won it all. The '68 Tigers also got white-hot in September, reeling off an 11-game win streak between the 9th and the 21st of that month. Motown's crew in '68 also featured Denny McLain, MLB's last 30-game winner, who would take home both the Cy Young and MVP award in the American League that season. Justin Verlander isn't going to win 30 games, but he still has an outside shot at becoming the first Tigers pitcher to 25 wins since Mickey Lolich in 1971 and to win the AL MVP, which no Tigers pitcher has won since Willie Hernandez in 1984. This year's AL Cy Young is already a forgone conclusion, and it will be a shock if Verlander does not win it.

The '68 Tigers and this year's squad also received big offensive contributions from their catchers. The '68 Tigers got a big year out of Bill Freehan, who finished with a .263 average, 25 homers and 84 RBIs during "the year of the pitcher," when offense was scarce and the AL's best batting average was .301. Alex Avila is having a terrific year behind the plate for Detroit, as he has a .301 batting average, 19 home runs, 77 RBIs and is slugging .577. Also ironic is the fact that both catchers started the All-Star Game for the AL, Freehan at the Astrodome, Avila at Chase Field.

The '68 squad also clinched early, winning the AL on September 17 and finishing 12 games ahead of the Baltimore Orioles in what would be the final year before divisional play (the team with the best record went to the World Series from 1903-1968). This year's Tigers will definitely clinch their division early too, and if they cool off for just two days, it could very well be on the 17th too.


Since I'm teetering into the realm of speculation, I'll end the comparisons on this note. The Tigers in '68, despite finishing with 103 victories, were underdogs in the World Series against the defending-World Champion St. Louis Cardinals, who boasted MLB's best pitcher that year, Bob Gibson. Detroit went down 3-1 in that year's series before making an improbable comeback to win it all, defeating Bob Gibson in Game Seven. Would it not be crazy if something similar were to happen this year, if the Tigers were to face Philadelphia (I know they aren't the defending champions, but they are the most comparable NL team), and pull off a seven-game series victory, defeating Roy Halladay in Game Seven? I know, I'm stretching here, but baseball can be a funny game sometimes.

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Oh those Pirates

The Bucs clinched their 19th consecutive losing season with a 3-2 loss against the Cardinals last night. I know Pittsburgh fans have likely gotten used to the losing seasons, but this one had to sting a little bit more, considering they were in a tie for first as late as July 25. However, the Bucs have not been the same since their 19-inning loss in Atlanta featuring quite possibly the worst call I have ever witnessed during a Major League game. They have not been the same since that ill-fated evening.

                                Jerry Meals, how could you?

However, there are some positives to be taken from this season. For starters, they will not lose 100 games this year, and their final record will stand as a significant improvement over last year. The Bucs still need pitching help badly, but Andrew McCutchen and Neil Walker look like they can both be the two players Pittsburgh can build their franchise around. If you also factor in that Pedro Alvarez and Jose Tabata both have the potential to improve (despite their dismal performances this year), their streak of losing seasons can end very soon.

That's all for now. Take care.

Some quick thoughts and a blast from the past

You may have already seen it, but tempers flared a little bit during last night's Brewers/Cardinals game in St. Louis. Nyger Morgan, after striking out in the ninth against Chris Carpenter, shouted something directed at either Carpenter or someone else (with Morgan, who knows). Albert Pujols took some offense to it and began to run toward Morgan, which resulted in the benches emptying. No worries though, this wasn't a legitimate "brawl," and the only thing that appeared to be hurt were the Cardinals' feelings afterwards.



Let me make one thing clear: I cannot stand the St. Louis Cardinals. I do not care for the fact that they always seem to be the self-appointed, mystical keepers of baseball etiquette, always pissing and moaning about what constitutes playing the game "the right way." Not only that, but you can come up with a laundry list of the things the Cardinals have complained about in the past, from the baseballs being "too slick" at Great American Ballpark to complaining about the mound at Coors Field (a good list of LaRussa's complaints can be found HERE).

However, I'm on the side of the Cardinals on this dispute. Morgan is clearly frustrated after striking out against Carpenter, who pitched a great ballgame last night. He does not need to get angry at Carpenter or the Cardinals just because he struck out during the ninth inning of a close game. I like Nyger Morgan, and I like his alter ego "Tony Plush." He's entertaining, and players with his kind of personality are great for the game. However, his intensity can get the best of him at times, and this was just another case of it here. LaRussa, Carpenter and Pujols even said so after the game.

Hopefully Morgan can keep his intensity going without needlessly screaming at the other team for getting him out. Also, props to Prince Fielder for keeping things from escalating. Here's to wishing the Brewers the best in the postseason.

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With regard to this year's races, it seems as if there is a lack of drama this September. As of this morning, the only real "race" that's left is in the AL West, with the Rangers maintaining a 2.5 game lead over the Angels. Those two teams close out the regular-season with a three-game series in Los Angeles, so if things stay close, that should be a blast to follow.

Unfortunately, this is the first time in the wild-card era that there are a lack of compelling races in September. The Yankees and Red Sox are jousting over the division title and wild card, as the Yankees hold a 2.5 game edge over Boston. Unfortunately, Boston holds a seven-game lead over Tampa Bay in the wild card, with 20 left to play. Barring a monumental collapse by the Red Sox (a la Detroit in 2009 or the Mets in 2007), they will be in the postseason, along with the Yankees.

The Tigers opened up a nine-game lead in the AL Central over the Sox, coming off a sweep of the Indians this week. The Tigers are also riding a six-game winning streak right now, and they are in great shape to get their first division title since 1987 (remember, they were just a Wild Card entry in the 2006 postseason). The only question left for them is if Justin Verlander can become the third pitcher in team history to win the Cy Young and MVP in the same season, joining reliever Willie Hernandez (1984) and 30-game winner Denny McLain (1968).

Barring any collapses, the National League playoff picture appears to be set, with the Phillies opening at home against the Diamondbacks and the Brewers opening at home against the Braves. The only question that remains in the National League race is if Arizona can surpass Milwaukee for the second-best record among the division winners. The Diamondbacks are 2.5 games behind the Brewers right now and if they can pass them, they can have the honor of starting the Division Series at home and manage to avoid the Phillies in the first round.

Speaking of the Diamondbacks, how shocking is their seven-game lead over the Giants right now? If the Diamondbacks can pull this off (all signs point to "yes" at this point), they will capture their fifth division title in their 13 year history. Not only that, but it will be the second time in team history and only the third time in MLB history that a team has made the postseason the year after losing at least 97 games, joining their 1999 squad and the 1991 Braves.

While the races themselves may not be interesting, the playoffs should definitely be a lot of fun once they begin on the 30th.

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I saw this on Lance McAlister's twitter page today and I thought I would share it with you. On this day in 1985, Pete Rose tied Ty Cobb's all-time hits record at Wrigley Field. Here is a great video from WCPO, with the great John Popovich and Dennis Janson providing you with the story:



Also on this day in 1998, Mark McGwire broke Roger Maris' single-season home run record. Knowing what we know now, it really is not that significant. However, if you take yourself back to the night it happened, it was a moment to remember. It seemed as if the entire country was transfixed on the home run chase that summer.


That's all for now. See you soon.

The 30 Team/30 Day Report Cards: Day 19- St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals

Record: 86-76 (Second place in NL Central, five games behind Cincinnati)

Batting Leaders

Batting Average: Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols (.312)

Home Runs: Albert Pujols (42)

RBIs: Albert Pujols (118)

On-base Percentage: Albert Pujols (.414)

Pitching Leaders

Wins: Adam Wainwright (20)

Strikeouts: Adam Wainwright (213)

Innings Pitched: Chris Carpenter (235)

ERA: Adam Wainwright (2.42). Bullpen- Jason Motte (2.24)

WHIP: Adam Wainwright (1.05). Bullpen- Ryan Franklin (1.03)

Saves: Ryan Franklin (27)

Highlight of the Year: The Redbirds were flying high after defeating the Reds 6-1 on August 11, completing a three-game sweep of their division rivals. The sweep would also see the Cards vault to first place in the division, as they left Cincinnati with a one game lead. The series was also marked by a bench-clearing brawl during the second game, which was ignited by the comments of second baseman Brandon Phillips regarding the Cardinals team.

Lowlight of the Year: The euphoria the sweep brought to the team would be short-lived, as the Cardinals would go just 22-27 the rest of the way, falling out of first and eventually, out of contention.

The Lowdown:

The Cardinals entered 2010 as the overwhelming favorite to win the NL Central, as they featured a bevy of stars on their ballclub, including Matt Holliday, Albert Pujols, Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. They managed to win the division rather easily over the Cubs last year, and there was no reason to think why they would not be able to do the same this year, especially with the Cubs appearing more vulnerable than usual. However, the Redbirds were dealt an unexpected surprise when the Cincinnati Reds vaulted into contention and proved to be a worthy foe throughout the course of the season. The Cardinals were able to get the best of the Reds head-to-head this year (finishing with a 12-6 record), but the thing that did them in was their inability to beat the sub-.500 teams in the NL, as the Reds largely decimated those same cellar-dwellers. Against the Cubs, Pirates, Brewers and Astros, St. Louis finished with a less than impressive 27-33 mark, while the Reds finished 43-18 against those same four teams. Even though the Cards took care of business against teams with winning records, they failed to beat the teams they were supposed to, and that is what unfortunately doomed this team.

Offense:

The Cardinals had an effective lineup this year, finishing 14^th in runs (736), ninth in batting average (.263), 13^th in on-base percentage (.332) and 16^th in home runs (150). The leader of the offense as always is Albert Pujols, putting together a typical season for a baseball giant. He tied for the team-lead in batting average at .312, while hitting a NL-best 42 home runs and driving in a NL-best 118. Had the Cardinals managed to reach the postseason this year, he would have likely won the NL MVP for an incredible fourth time.

Behind him was Matt Holliday, an outstanding complimentary piece to Pujols. Holliday put together a great season himself, hitting .312 with 28 home runs and 103 RBIs. Despite the standout performances of these two, the lineup dropped off considerably after them. Center fielder Colby Rasmus was decent, hitting 23 home runs while driving in 66, but outside of him, nobody else really contributed much offensively. Ryan Ludwick was another decent complimentary piece to Pujols and Holliday, and he was hitting .281 with 11 home runs in 77 games for St. Louis. Nonetheless, the Cardinals decided that they would rather have a fourth starter at the expense of their lineup, trading Ludwick to San Diego in a three-team deal at the deadline that saw the Redbirds receive Jake Westbrook from the Indians. The trade unfortunately left their lineup even weaker, and the disparity between Pujols, Holliday and the rest of the lineup grew exponentially.

The lineup as a whole was okay, but they don’t really scare a lot of people once you get past Pujols and Holliday.

Final Grade: C+

Pitching:

The Cardinals featured some of the best pitching in baseball this year, finishing fifth in ERA (3.57), sixth in quality starts (94), 29^th in home runs surrendered (133), and 10^th in WHIP (1.30). They were also anchored by two of the best pitchers in the National League, Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter, who both did not disappoint this year. Wainwright was just one of two pitchers to win 20 games in the NL this year, finishing 20-11 with a 2.42 ERA, 213 strikeouts and a WHIP of 1.05. If not for the Cardinals’ unspectacular finish, he could have presented more of a challenge for the voters to decide who should have won the NL Cy Young Award.

Carpenter was also magnificent behind him, leading the team in innings pitched (235), along with recording a 16-9 record with a 3.22 ERA. You could not expect anything less from these two, but the biggest surprise in this rotation came from lefty Jaime Garcia. The 24-year-old in his first full big-league season came up huge for St. Louis, going 13-8 with a 2.70 ERA, good for fourth in the National League. His emergence as a quality arm in their rotation will definitely go a long way, especially since the Brewers and Phillies have stocked up their rotations considerably.

The rotation behind those two was a bit of a toss-up, as Kyle Lohse, Jake Westbrook, Jeff Suppan and Brad Penny each received at least nine starts or more. Lohse’s performance was pretty forgettable, but Suppan, Westbrook and Penny were each respectable whenever they took the hill, as they all recorded ERAs under four.

The Cards also featured a pretty decent bullpen, finishing in a tie for 10^th in ERA with the White Sox at 3.73. Kyle McClellan was one of the crucial performers in this bullpen, finishing with a 2.27 ERA in a team-high 68 appearances. Jason Motte was just as good as well, finishing with a 2.24 ERA in 56 appearances this year. Closer Ryan Franklin was fair for the most part, recording a 3.46 ERA while notching 27 saves.

There’s not much else to say about this pitching staff, as they met and exceeded people’s expectations this year.

Final Grade: A

Wild Card: GM John Mozeliak

Even though this is an organization that usually makes the right moves, they made a questionable one when they traded outfielder Ryan Ludwick to the San Diego Padres in order to get more help in starting pitching. The Cardinals featured three of the best pitchers in the National League this year in Wainwright, Carpenter and Garcia, so why would they trade one of their offensive centerpieces to get more help in something they really did not need? Even though their staff was strengthened, their lineup weakened considerably. It appears they are attempting to make amends for this by signing Lance Berkman, but it remains to be seen what he will contribute next year.

Final Grade: D

Overall:

The Cardinals, as they are assembled right now, are definitely a playoff team. They underachieved this year, plain and simple. If everybody plays to the level they are capable of, and if they can avoid losing too many games to sub-.500 teams, they’ll have a great chance of returning to the postseason next year.

Final Grade: C+

Check back soon for the report card on the Chicago White Sox!

NL MVP candidates: who gets your vote?

Just a few days ago, we took a look at the American League MVP candidates, and who I thought would win it and why. Today, we'll take a look at the MVP candidates in the National League, and who I think is most deserving of the award.

Here are the top three candidates:

Stats are as of September 17:



3.) Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals
.306 batting average, 39 home runs, 105 RBIs, .402 OBP

As usual, Albert Pujols is in the discussion for National League MVP. However, the recent slide of the Cardinals will leave his chances for winning the award very slim. His numbers are still incredible, as he is in the top ten in just about every major statistical offensive category. Unfortunately for him, the team's recent struggles will probably deny him the chance of winning his fourth MVP award.


2.) Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies
.341 batting average, 32 home runs, 106 RBIs, .378 OBP

If the Rockies continue their hot streak and make the postseason, there could be a very good chance that Gonzalez can capture the trophy. It's no coincidence that when he began to heat up in late August, so did the team. Gonzalez leads the NL in batting average and RBIs, and is tied for fourth in home runs with Arizona's Mark Reynolds. He has also accumulated many of his monster numbers since the All-Star break, as his .385 average, 15 home runs and 46 RBIs should suggest. The only argument against him seems to be his ridiculous home and away splits, which look like this:

Home: .392 average, 25 homers, 72 RBIs, .439 OBP
Away: .288 average, 7 homers, 34 RBIs, .310 OBP.

Is he a product of Coors Field? The stats certainly suggest that label. Will the voters be willing to overlook that flaw in Gonzalez's season? If the Rockies make the playoffs, more than a few writers might be swayed to vote in favor of "CarGo."


1.) Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds
.320 batting average, 34 home runs, 104 RBIs, .419 OBP

Right now, Joey Votto is my pick for MVP, if only for the fact that if the season ended today, the Reds would be in the postseason, and the Rockies would be on the outside looking in. Votto has been the leader of an offense this year that has been dismantling National League pitching, as the team's National League-leading 720 runs would suggest. Not only is Votto becoming a more feared hitter at the plate this year (he's third in the NL in walks with 83), but he is also showing off his capabilities of being a complete hitter. Votto is third in the NL in batting average, third in home runs, third in RBIs, and first in on-base percentage. Should the races continue as they are, I believe that Joey Votto will without question be the Reds' first MVP in 15 years.

Check back soon for the American League Cy Young Award candidates!

The 30 Day/30 Team Report Cards: Day 24- St. Louis Cardinals

From the "City by the Bay," to the "Gateway to the West," we have reached the second playoff team in our series, as today's report card will be issued to the St. Louis Cardinals.

St. Louis Cardinals:
Record: 91-71 (First place in the NL Central).

Batting Leaders:
Batting Average: Albert Pujols (.327)
Home Runs: Albert Pujols (47)
RBIs: Albert Pujols (135)
On-base Percentage: Albert Pujols (.443)

Pitching Leaders:
Wins: Adam Wainwright (19)
ERA: Chris Carpenter (2.24). Bullpen- Ryan Franklin (1.92).
Strikeouts: Adam Wainwright (212)
Innings Pitched: Adam Wainwright (233)
WHIP: Trevor Miller (0.96). Starters- Chris Carpenter (1.01).
Saves: Ryan Franklin (38)

Highlight of the Season: After nobody really believed in the Cardinals at the beginning of the season, they took their sixth division title of the decade on September 26, following a 6-3 victory over the Rockies.

Lowlight of the Season: A truly heart-breaking loss in Game Two of the Division Series in Los Angeles, when Matt Holliday's error with two outs helped pave the way for a comeback 3-2 victory for the Dodgers. Instead of going back to St. Louis tied at one game apiece, they were heading back home down 0-2 in the series.

The Lowdown:
The Cardinals proved everybody wrong once again this year, as they raced to their sixth division title of the decade, doing it the way they usually do, by featuring a strong offense supported by Albert Pujols, and by featuring a strong pitching staff. At the beginning of the season, many people believed that the division was all for the Cubs' taking once again. However, once the Cubs stumbled out of the gate, the door was left open for St. Louis to come storming through, and they did just that, as their 42-29 record after the All-Star break indicates. Their acquisition of outfielder Matt Holliday just before the trade deadline also helped push St. Louis across the finish line, as he would become a great compliment to Pujols in their lineup. Also, the return of a healthy Chris Carpenter helped the Cards out a great deal, as he returned to the form that helped him win a Cy Young in 2005. With that being said, let's take a look at how the Cardinals shaped up in 2009, beginning with their offense.

Offense:
As noted earlier, the Cardinals offense became much stronger and more potent with the arrival of Matt Holliday. Before he arrived, however, it was a considerably different story, as Rick Ankiel and Ryan Ludwick each regressed from their 2008 production. Ludwick, who hit a whopping 37 home runs and drove in 113 in 2008, would hit just 22 this year, to go along with 97 RBIs. Ankiel also watched his power numbers drop, as he fell from 25 home runs and 71 RBIs in 2008 to 11 home runs and 38 RBIs this year. The Matt Holliday trade was obviously a vital one, since the Cards needed someone to replace the lost production of those two. Holliday proved to be up to the task once he arrived, as he hit .353, with 13 home runs and 55 RBIs in just 63 games with the team.

Certainly a big reason for Holliday's success has to be because he has the best hitter in baseball protecting him in the lineup. Albert Pujols was simply phenomenal once again in 2009, as he hit .327, with 45 home runs and 135 RBIs. Among all major-leaguers, Pujols would finish sixth in batting average, first in home runs, third in RBIs, and second in on-base percentage, as he would get on at a clip of .443. This fantastic season was good enough for him to earn his third-career MVP award, as he was elected unanimously this time around.

Overall, the Cardinals finished 18th in runs scored (730) and would tie for 16th in home runs with 160. They also tied for 11th in batting average (.263) and for 16th in on-base percentage (.332). If Holliday was in the lineup for the entire season, these numbers would definitely be much higher. However, he wasn't, so I have to give the Redbirds a grade for how they were during the whole season, and not just half of it.
Final Grade: B

Pitching:
Their staff was led by the strong performances of Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter, who were both Cy Young candidates during the season. Wainwright was absolutely fantastic, as he would feature a 19-8 record, to go along with a 2.63 ERA and a solid 212 strikeouts. His win total tied CC Sabathia and Felix Hernandez for the major-league lead, and he would finish sixth in ERA and eighth in strikeouts. Since this season was following great performances in 2008 and 2007, Wainwright is certainly making a case for himself to enter the pitching elite of MLB. In fact, he may already be there.

Chris Carpenter also put together a great season, as he went 17-4, with an absolutely sick 2.24 ERA, which was the second-best in MLB behind only Zack Greinke. His 1.01 WHIP was also the second-best in MLB among starting pitchers, trailing only Dan Haren of Arizona. The only thing that possibly hurt his chances at winning a second Cy Young Award was the fact that he made only 28 starts, as he did not start on a regular basis until around the end of May, due to injury. Joel Piniero also had a fair year in the rotation, going 15-12 with a 3.49 ERA. However, his WHIP was actually one of the better ones in baseball though, coming in at 1.14.

Their bullpen also did a great job this past season, as Dennys Reyes, Trevor Miller and closer Ryan Franklin are all worth mentioning. Reyes made the most appearances on the staff this year with 75, and he made the most out of it, as he recorded a team-high 18 holds along with a 3.29 ERA. Miller also had a fantastic year out of the 'pen, as he was arguably the best pitcher out of the bullpen for St. Louis. In 70 appearances, he recorded a 2.06 ERA, to go along with a ridiculous 0.96 WHIP. He also received some work in the set-up role, as he recorded 13 holds as well. His performance in relief is only rivaled by closer Ryan Franklin, who recorded 38 saves in 43 chances, to go along with a WHIP of 1.20 and a 1.92 ERA.

The staff, as a whole, would go on to finish fourth in ERA (3.66), 28th in runs allowed (640), last in walks (460) and tied for ninth in opponents' batting average (.258). I think it goes without saying that this staff was pretty good in '09.
Final Grade: A

Wild Card: Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan
These two have been together since their days as a manager/pitching coach tandem for the White Sox in the early 1980s. While managers have a marginal influence in the outcome of games, there is no doubt that having Tony LaRussa as your manager will give you a better shot at reaching the postseason. I don't know if it is his managerial genius, or the fact that players play harder for him, or both. All I know is that he has managed consistent winners with the Cardinals this entire decade, along with a considerable amount of turnover on his roster. Also, kudos to pitching coach Dave Duncan, as the guy clearly knows how to turn pitchers around. Just look at the results for yourself. Heck, there are two on this year's staff alone in Carpenter (who was nothing more than a mediocre pitcher in Toronto in the early part of this decade) and Joel Piniero (who was pretty mediocre after two decent seasons in Seattle in '02 and '03). Even though it is the players who ultimately win the games, having these two on your coaching staff certainly makes things better.
Final Grade: A+

Overall:
Once they arrived in the playoffs, many people thought that this team was the favorite to win the NL Pennant, simply because they featured a stronger overall pitching staff than Philadelphia. However, Carpenter and Piniero were disappointing in their playoff starts against the Dodgers, and Wainwright had his good start ruined by an unfortunate ninth-inning rally that was largely the bullpen's fault. Put all three of those together, and you have an embarrassing three-game sweep. If the Cardinals decide to re-sign Holliday, and if Carpenter can stay healthy, there is no reason as to why they can't return to the NL Central penthouse in 2010. Maybe then they can make up for this year's disappointing finish.
Final Grade: A

Check back soon for the report card on the Colorado Rockies!