My Top Five AL MVP Candidates

Yesterday we looked at who I think should be the top five National League MVP candidates. Although Ryan Braun added to his credentials last night with a three-run homer that helped Milwaukee clinch the NL Central, my position still stands. Even if Matt Kemp does not achieve the Triple Crown, he will still finish close enough for me to garner the MVP.

Today, it's time to look at who I believe should be the top five candidates to win the American League MVP.

Fifth-place vote: Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers
Through September 24: .336 BA, 27 HRs, 100 RBIs, .443 OBP, .566 SLG
Cabrera is having another terrific year for the Detroit Tigers as the anchor in their lineup. He's currently third in the American League in batting average, second in on-base percentage and fourth in slugging. However, his home run total is lacking a bit this year (he's tied for 14th in the AL) and he put up better numbers last year on a team that finished with a worse record.

Fourth-place vote: Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston Red Sox
Through September 24: .319 BA, 28 HRs, 98 RBIs, .374 OBP, .539 SLG, 37 steals
Ellsbury has been a major catalyst in Boston's lineup this year, as he is on the brink becoming the first 30/30 player in Red Sox history. While his .319 average is impressive for a leadoff hitter, his 28 home runs and 37 stolen bases makes him an all-around threat, along with his defense in center field.

Third-place vote: Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays
Through September 24: .303 BA, 42 HRs, 101 RBIs, 128 BBs, .447 OBP, .611 SLG, 1.058 OPS
"Joey Bats" is proving that last year was no fluke, as his batting average is significantly higher than it was last year. He currently leads the AL in home runs, on-base percentage, slugging, OPS and walks. Oh, and he's also in the top ten in batting average. Make no mistake about it, Bautista looks like he's here to stay as one of the elite hitters in the American League. Only his team's sub-par performance will keep him from winning the award.

Second-place vote: Curtis Granderson, New York Yankees
Through September 24: .277 BA, 41 HRs, 119 RBIs, .372 OBP, .572 SLG, 24 steals
Granderson is having the kind of breakout season that Bautista had during 2010. While his average is lacking (.277), he easily makes up for it in home runs (second in the AL) and RBIs (first in the AL). Even though the Yankees would still be a very good team without Granderson, he is the guy that has them in first place instead of third in the AL East.





First-place vote: Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers
Through September 24: 24-5 record, 2.29 ERA, 244 Ks, 244.0 IP, 0.91 WHIP
Throw out the fact that he is a pitcher and not a position player and think of him in terms of overall value to his team. The award is called the Most Valuable Player, right? Well, who has been more valuable to his team than Justin Verlander this year? Let's face it, the Tigers are a significantly weaker team without him, and the AL Central would be a race between the Indians and White Sox if it weren't for Verlander's outstanding season for Detroit. The fact that he goes deep into ballgames lessens the workload of the bullpen, and when you look at the other pitchers in Detroit's starting rotation (Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello, Brad Penny, etc.), this team would be lost without Verlander. Oh, and it doesn't hurt that he's leading the AL in wins, strikeouts, ERA, WHIP and innings pitched.

The Cardinals, Angels and Rays are very much alive

Remember when I was with you last week, and I mentioned that if the Cardinals were to survive their series in Philly, they would have a great shot at making the postseason? Well, the Redbirds are one step closer to reaching October, as they took three of four from the Phillies in shocking fashion. In addition to that, St. Louis returned home and took the first two games in their series against the Mets, leaving them only 1.5 games behind the Braves with seven left to play.

The Cardinals' final seven games include their series finale against the Mets today, along with three against the Cubs and Astros. The Braves have just six left, three against Washington and three against the Phillies. With the relentless pace the Cardinals are on, it seems as if October is a mere formality for them at this point.

However, history tells us that there are reasons for Braves fans to remain optimistic about holding on to their Wild Card lead. Remember back in 2005, when it seemed like the Indians were on their way to the postseason with their ridiculous 38-16 record in August and September? It did not come to pass, as the Tribe lost six of their last seven to miss the postseason. Three of those losses came against the lowly Royals and Devil Rays, while the other three came against the White Sox, who basically started their Triple-A roster against Cleveland after clinching the Central.

In 2008, the Twins looked like they were well on their way to another AL Central  Division title after sweeping the White Sox in the penultimate series of the season. However, the Twins lost two of their last three against Kansas City, setting up a one game playoff against the White Sox which they would lose 1-0.

While this bit of history won't provide much comfort or consolation for Braves fans at this point, it just serves as a reminder that teams who go crazy in September don't always reach October. However, the Cardinals were 8.5 games behind Atlanta on September 5. Since then, they are 12-2, while Atlanta is 6-10. If the Cardials do pull this off, it will likely go down as perhaps the biggest September collapse/comeback in baseball history.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
There is also high drama unfolding in the American League Wild Card race, as Boston's free fall continues. The Carmines dropped three of four against the Baltimore Orioles this week, and have seen their Wild Card lead dwindle down to just 2.5 games over the Angels and Rays. On September 3, the Red Sox had a nine-game lead over the Rays in the Wild Card and a 9.5 game lead over the Angels. They could potentially upstage the Braves' NL collapse if they fall far enough.

Plus, this is a collapse in every sense of the term. You can still give credit to the Cardinals for getting hot at the right time, but the Rays are just 10-7 since September 3, while the Angels are 10-6 since that date. The Red Sox's record since then? A ghastly 4-14. Here's how the final games shape up for each of the three AL teams in the hunt for the Wild Card:

Joe Maddon could have his team on the brink of a historic
comeback.

Boston Red Sox:
Friday 9/23 @ Yankees
Saturday 9/24 @ Yankees
Sunday 9/25 @ Yankees
Monday 9/26 @ Orioles
Tuesday 9/27 @ Orioles
Wednesday 9/28 @ Orioles

Los Angeles Angels:
Thursday 9/22 @ Blue Jays
Friday 9/23 vs. A's
Saturday 9/24 vs. A's
Sunday 9/25 vs. A's
Monday 9/26 vs. Rangers
Tuesday 9/27 vs. Rangers
Wednesday 9/28 vs. Rangers

Tampa Bay Rays:
Thursday 9/22 @ Yankees
Friday 9/23 vs. Blue Jays
Saturday 9/24 vs. Blue Jays
Sunday 9/25 vs. Blue Jays
Monday 9/26 vs. Yankees
Tuesday 9/27 vs. Yankees
Wednesday 9/28 vs. Yankees

Looking at the schedules, it's basically a push for all three teams. Everybody faces somebody who they will have some difficulty beating. If I had to pick one team that has the toughest schedule to finish the season, it's the Angels, only because they will be battling the Rangers for the division crown in those final three games (should they still be in contention for the AL West title).

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What could also unfold from all of this is the ever-elusive three-way tie, which has never occurred in MLB history. From what I could ascertain, there have only been six instances in which there was nearly a three-way tie in MLB history:

2010 National League:
San Francisco Giants: 92-70 (NL West Champion)
Atlanta Braves: 91-71 (NL Wild Card)
San Diego Padres: 90-72

Former Padres First Baseman
Adrian Gonzalez

San Diego, after having a dreadful September, was placed in a position where they had to sweep the Giants to stay alive. The Padres took the first two games from the Giants, and if they would have won the season finale, the first three-way tie in MLB history would have taken place. Since the Giants lost the season series to the Padres, they would have traveled to San Diego to face the Padres in a one-game playoff to determine the champion of the NL West. The loser of that game would have traveled to Atlanta to play the Braves for the Wild Card title the following night. This "mini-playoff" would have put the entire NL postseason on hold, as the Phillies and Reds would have awaited the results of this extra postsesaon round.




---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1967 American League:
Boston Red Sox: 92-70 (AL Champions)
Detroit Tigers: 91-71
Minnesota Twins: 91-71
Chicago White Sox: 89-73

Carl Yastrzemski's Triple Crown season in 1967
helped lead Boston to the American League Pennant.

This year nearly featured a four-way tie for the American League crown, as MLB was still two years away from implementing the playoff system. The team with the best record went to the World Series, and entering Wednesday, September 27, here's how the standings looked:

Minnesota Twins: 91-68
Boston Red Sox: 90-69, 1 GB
Chicago White Sox: 89-68, 1 GB
Detroit Tigers: 89-69, 1.5 GB

The White Sox crumbled badly unfortunately, losing their final five games to the dreadful Kansas City A's and Washington Senators. The Tigers hung tough, splitting a four game series with the California Angels to finish 91-71. The Twins would lose on September 27 to the Angels 5-1, setting up a tense, two-game series in Boston to determine the American League Pennant. The Red Sox would win both games against the Twins to capture their first American League Pennant since 1946.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1964 National League:
St. Louis Cardinals: 93-69 (NL Champions)
Cincinnati Reds: 92-70
Philadelphia Phillies: 92-70

Phillies manager Gene Mauch watched things spiral
out of control during the end of the 1964 season.

This was the year of the infamous "Philly Phold," as the Phillies led the National League by 6.5 games with 12 left. Philadelphia would lose 10 in a row after that, with manager Gene Mauch going into panic mode, starting Jim Bunning and Chris Short (his two best starters) a combined five times during the losing streak. The Phillies managed to win their final two games against the Reds but it was too little, too late. St. Louis stormed back to capture their first NL flag since 1946. If the Cardinals lost their final regular-season game against the Mets, there would have been a three-way tie in the National League.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1964 American League:
New York Yankees: 99-63 (AL Champions)
Chicago White Sox: 98-64
Baltimore Orioles: 97-65

Hall of Famer and relief specialist Hoyt Wilhelm
was one of many phenomenal pitchers on Chicago's
staff in 1964.

What a year! This year would be the Yankees' swan song, as they would capture their 15th pennant in 18 seasons, but not without some drama. The White Sox and Orioles hung tough with the Bronx Bombers all summer. New York caught fire in September, going 22-6 during that month, while the White Sox went 14-10 and the Orioles went 15-13. The Yankees, despite their impressive September mark, survived a late scare from the White Sox, who finished the year with a 10-2 kick, including a nine-game winning streak. It's a little complex explaining how there would have been a three-way tie that year, but I'll do my best.

The Orioles would have needed to sweep their doubleheader against Washington on September 30, which would have them finish the season on an eight-game winning streak;

The Yankees would have needed to lose two of three against Cleveland in their final series to finish 98-64.

New York would ultimately lose the World Series to St. Louis, and with an aging roster, would fall into oblivion for the next decade.




---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1908 National League:

Fred Merkle was just 19 years old in 1908, but
he unfortunately made a baserunning mistake that
would haunt him for the rest of his life.

Chicago Cubs: 99-55 (NL Champions)
New York Giants: 98-56
Pittsburgh Pirates 98-56

The Cubs captured their third consecutive National League crown, thanks in large part to Fred Merkle's "boner" in the Polo Grounds earlier in the season. It would take a ton of time to explain, but if you want to find out more about Fred's baserunning blunder, please go HERE. Since the two teams remained tied at the end of the season, they had to replay the "Fred Merkle Game" at the end of the season as a de facto one game playoff, which the Cubs won.









--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1908 American League:

Cleveland's Addie Joss pitched just the
fourth perfect game in MLB history in 1908.

Detroit Tigers: 90-63
Cleveland Naps (Indians): 90-64
Chicago White Sox: 88-64

Why does it seem like the Sox are always on the bad end of these things? Anyway, the Tigers captured the American League Pennant by a half-game (which wasn't nearly as controversial as their "half-game AL East Championship" 64 years later, but that's a story for another day). The highlight of this pennant race was when Cleveland's Addie Joss tossed a perfect game against the White Sox on Friday, October 2, to keep the Naps just a half-game behind Detroit with five left to play. However, the Tigers ultimately kept Cleveland at bay, as the Naps lost two of three against the St. Louis Browns at the end of the season, while tying the first game of the series against them.



----------------------------------------------------------------------------

It may be a long shot, but here's to hoping that we can see the first-ever three-way tie this year in the American League. That's all for now. Take care.

My wildly outrageous 2011 MLB Predictions

• With Opening Day quickly approaching, it's always fun to predict how the season will play itself out. Here's how I think the 2011 season will go down. It'll be more fun seeing how wrong I am at the end of the season, too. Let's go!
  
  Division Predictions (asterisk denotes Wild Card winner)
  
  AL East:
  
  1. Boston Red Sox (97-65). The new acquisitions of first baseman Adrian Gonzalez and left fielder Carl Crawford will pay huge dividends to a team that is already very talented. Should everybody stay healthy, a division title is a certain lock for the Carmines.
  2. New York Yankees (88-74). Their lineup will still mash, but will their pitching be deep enough behind C.C. Sabathia to keep pace with the rest of the AL? My guess is that it won't be.
  3. Toronto Blue Jays (86-76). Much like the Yankees, the Jays will have a very formidable lineup, but there are still several question marks regarding their pitching. Also, will Jose Bautista have an encore performance at the plate this year? Chances are that he won't hit 54 home runs again, but he'll still be a very intimidating presence in their lineup.
  4. Tampa Bay Rays (79-83). The Rays may say that their pitching will still be good, but the losses of Carl Crawford, Rafael Soriano, Carlos Pena, Jason Bartlett and Matt Garza will just be too much for them to overcome.
  5. Baltimore Orioles (69-93). Their lineup looks better, and they have some young pitchers with the potential to be good, but I still think they're a year or two away from moving out of the AL East basement.
  
  
  AL Central:
  
  1. Chicago White Sox (93-69). With the new acquisition of 1B/DH Adam Dunn, Chicago's lineup will easily be the toughest in the division. Their pitching, while not overwhelming, will be good enough for them to capture their fourth division title since 2000.
  2. *Minnesota Twins (91-71). Even though they did not do much to improve themselves in the off-season, the Twins usually still find a way to get things done, and this year won't be any different, as they will capture the American League Wild Card.
  3. Detroit Tigers (87-75). They will certainly improve on last year's mediocre performance, but will their starting rotation be deep enough behind Verlander to propel them to the postseason. My guess is that they will be good, but not good enough.
  4. Kansas City Royals (68-94). Apparently they have the best farm system in baseball, so their days of misery may not last for too much longer. However, they won't be good at all this year.
  5. Cleveland Indians (61-101). Their bullpen improved last year, but that still doesn't make up for a dreadful starting rotation, and a lineup that has a steep talent drop off once you look past Shin Soo-Choo and Grady Sizemore.
  
  
  AL West:
  
  1. Texas Rangers (88-74). A strong lineup coupled with some solid pitching will vault the defending American League Champions back into the playoffs.
  2. Oakland A's (87-75). Oakland will put up a fight, as they will boast the best starting rotation in the American League for the second year in a row. However, their lack of offense will get the best of them.
  3. Los Angeles Angels (78-84). Losing out in the free agent sweepstakes will definitely cost the Angels this year, as their lineup continues to age.
  4. Seattle Mariners (65-97). At least they have Ichiro and Felix Hernandez to keep people interested.
  
  
  NL East:
  
  1. Philadelphia Phillies (102-60). The Phillies will roll to a fifth consecutive division crown behind the best rotation in baseball and a very strong lineup.
  2. Atlanta Braves (86-76). The Braves will be solid, but will they be good enough to reach the postseason again? With the multitude of deep teams in the NL, I don't think Atlanta quite stacks up to the rest of the pack. Besides, if it wasn't for San Diego's September collapse last year, the Braves would not have reached the postseason.
  3. Florida Marlins (81-81). They always seem to be stuck in gear. They are the MLB poster-child for "average."
  4. New York Mets (77-85). They could potentially be better, but we've been saying that for the last couple of years. I'll let them prove it to me before I put them ahead of the Marlins.
  5. Washington Nationals (67-95). DC's lineup should be okay, but their pitching will be wretched, especially without Strasburg.
  
  
  NL Central:
  
  1. Milwaukee Brewers (95-67). The Brew Crew are going "all in" this year, and with the additions of Zack Greinke and Shawn Marcum to their starting rotation, the Crew will have their best season since 1982.
  2. *Cincinnati Reds (93-69). Their lineup will be great again, but their pitching should be even better than last year, as their young arms will certainly improve.
  3. St. Louis Cardinals (84-78). Losing Adam Wainwright for the season will really, really hurt the Cards. Plus, an erratic lineup behind Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday certainly won't help matters.
  4. Chicago Cubs (82-80). They won't be as dreadful as they were last year, but any improvements they make this year will be only marginal.
  5. Houston Astros (70-92). Not much to say about the Astros, other than they aren't all that great.
  6. Pittsburgh Pirates (65-97). The Bucs will be dreadful, but they won't lose 100 games again. Their lineup will be stronger than most people expect, but their pitching will easily be the worst in baseball.
  
  
  NL West:
  
  1. Colorado Rockies (91-71). In a very competitive division, the Rockies will march to their first division title in team history behind a strong lineup and some solid pitching.
  2. Los Angeles Dodgers (90-72). LA will narrowly miss the playoffs, but they will hang tough into the final week of the season behind a decent offense and a deep rotation.
  3. San Francisco Giants (80-82). The defending World Champions will experience a lay over, as their offense won't be nearly as clutch as they were last year.
  4. San Diego Padres (73-89). Last year was a fluke, trust me. They'll get a good year out of Mat Latos however, as he will settle in even more to become the unquestioned staff ace.
  5. Arizona Diamondbacks (68-94). They'll improve marginally, but they still won't be that good.
  
  
  Postseason
  
  American League Division Series:
  Boston Red Sox over Minnesota Twins 3-2. The Twins will finally win a playoff game, and not only that, they'll push Boston to a fifth and deciding game before the Red Sox take care of business at home.
  
  Chicago White Sox over Texas Rangers 3-0. Chicago will make easy work of the defending American League Champions, sweeping them out of the playoffs.
  
  National League Division Series:
  Philadelphia Phillies over Cincinnati Reds 3-1. Bad luck will strike the Reds again in the form of facing the formidable Philadelphia Phillies, but they won't get swept this time though.
  
  Milwaukee Brewers over Colorado Rockies 3-1. Milwaukee will finish off the Rockies in an easy four games.
  
  American League Championship Series:
  Chicago White Sox over Boston Red Sox 4-3. The White Sox, in shocking fashion, will take down the heavily-favored Boston Red Sox in seven games.
  
  National League Championship Series: Philadelphia Phillies over Milwaukee Brewers 4-2. The Phillies will reach the World Series again for the third time in four years, but not without a fight, as Milwaukee will give them fits.
  
  World Series
  Philadelphia Phillies over Chicago White Sox 4-1. The Phillies are just too strong for Chicago, dispatching them in a quick and easy five games to take home their third title in team history. I'm not completely drinking the kool-aid right now.
  
  Awards
  
  AL MVP: Carl Crawford, Boston Red Sox.
  
  NL MVP: Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers.
  
  AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers.
  
  NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies.
  
  AL Rookie of the Year: Kyle Drabek, Toronto Blue Jays.
  
  NL Rookie of the Year: Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds.
  
  AL Manager of the Year: Bob Geren, Oakland A's.
  
  NL Manager of the Year: Ron Roenicke, Milwaukee Brewers.
  
  Other wild and ridiculous predictions:


• Joey Votto will not repeat as a MVP winner, but he'll become the first Reds player in 38 years to win a batting title, hitting .347.


• Adam Dunn will have a field day in Chicago, becoming the first player in White Sox history to hit over 50 home runs. He'll finish with 53.
  


• There will be four 20-game winners in baseball this year, with two of them coming from the Phillies (Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee). John Danks of the White Sox and Justin Verlander of the Tigers will be the others.
  


• Verlander will have the best year of his career by far, as he will become the first pitcher since 2002 to strike out 300 batters in a season.
  


• The National League will win the All-Star Game once again, securing home field advantage in the World Series for the second year in a row.
  


• After 32 years of managing and after a disappointing third-place finish, the Cardinals' Tony LaRussa will announce his retirement at season's end.
  


• Even though the Nationals insist that this won't happen, star prospect Bryce Harper will be called up to the big leagues in September.

As I already mentioned at the beginning of this post, I may be completely wrong at the end of the year when I go back and look at this. However, it's always fun to make predictions on how the year will turn out, then looking back to see how right or how wrong you are!

Interview with Red Sox beat writer Ian Browne

MLB.com Red Sox beat writer Ian Browne stops by "Breakfast and Baseball" during our American League East show to discuss the upcoming season for the Carmines.

Air date: 1/20/11.

Podcast Powered By Podbean

The 30 Team/30 Day Report Cards: Day 21- Boston Red Sox

Boston Red Sox

Record: 89-73 (Third place in AL East, seven games behind Tampa Bay)

Batting Leaders

Batting Average: Adrian Beltre (.321)

Home Runs: David Ortiz (32)

RBIs: David Ortiz and Adrian Beltre (102)

On-base Percentage: David Ortiz (.370)

Pitching Leaders

Wins: Jon Lester (19)

Strikeouts: Jon Lester (225)

Innings Pitched: John Lackey (215)

ERA: Clay Buchholz (2.33). Bullpen- Daniel Bard (1.93)

WHIP: Jon Lester (1.20). Bullpen- Daniel Bard (1.00)

Saves: Jonathan Papelbon (37)

Highlight of the Year: A 51-37 first half, which left the team only three games behind Tampa Bay for the Wild Card.

Lowlight of the Year: A deflating 7-5 loss at home to the White Sox on September 5 that pushed the team to a season-high 10 games out of first place. What made the loss particularly painful was that the White Sox scored four of their seven runs in the ninth inning, and the loss completed a three-game sweep, effectively putting the team out of contention.

The Lowdown:

The scrappy Red Sox managed to somehow stay in contention for most of the summer, in spite of the plethora of injuries that ravaged this team. The team suffered from injuries to many of their key players, including Kevin Youkilis, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie , Josh Beckett and Dustin Pedroia, which left the team at less than 100% strength the entire season. Somehow, someway though, they managed to contend for most of the summer, as they received great performances on the mound from Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, along with good performances at the plate from Adrian Beltre and David Ortiz, who recovered from a slow start. This was a rare down season for this team, as they missed the playoffs for the first time since 2006, and finished in third for only the second time since 1998.

Offense:

The Carmines’ offense remained strong in spite of the injuries, as they finished second in the majors in homers (211), second in runs (818), sixth in batting average (.268), third in on-base percentage (.339) and second in slugging (.451). The two biggest contributors in their lineup in 2010 were Adrian Beltre and David Ortiz, as both essentially led the team in nearly all of their major offensive categories. Beltre had a renaissance year, hitting 56 points higher than he did in ’09 (.321), along with hitting 28 home runs and driving in 102. David Ortiz recovered from a slow start that people may have to get accustomed to, as he finished strong with 32 home runs and 102 RBIs.

Another great performance came from the bat of catcher Victor Martinez, who hit a rock-solid .302 with 20 home runs and 79 RBIs before succumbing to injury. J.D. Drew also provided capable power numbers, hitting 22 home runs and driving in 68.

One shudders to think at the potential of this lineup if they were completely healthy throughout the season. Kevin Youkilis only played in 102 games, but he still managed to hit .307 with 19 home runs and 62 RBIs, along with getting on base at a clip of .411. Second baseman Dustin Pedroia only played in 75 games, but he still hit .288 with 12 home runs and 41 RBIs. Infielder Jed Lowrie received an ample amount of playing time this year, but even he couldn’t stave off the injury bug, playing in only 55 games while hitting .287. Fill-ins Bill Hall and Darnell McDonald provided a fair amount of offense as well, combining for 27 home runs and 80 RBIs in the games they played.

Even though they never were really able to field their best lineup, the whole is definitely greater than the sum of its parts with this team.

Final Grade: A+

Pitching:

Boston’s pitching staff was something of a feast-or-famine kind of staff, as they received good performances from Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz and reliever Daniel Bard, but people like Josh Beckett, John Lackey, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Jonathan Papelbon underachieved greatly. Lester and Buchholz were nearly in Cy Young-form last year, as Lester finished 19-9 with a 3.25 ERA, while Buchholz finished 17-7 with a 2.33 ERA. Unfortunately, the rest of the staff was not nearly as great. Josh Beckett battled injuries and finished with a 5.78 ERA in 21 starts, while John Lackey finished with an uncharacteristically-high 4.40 ERA, in spite of his 14-11 record. Daisuke Matsuzaka is beginning to prove more and more that he is overpaid, as he finished with a pedestrian 9-6 record with a 4.69 ERA, which is not something you want to see from a pitcher who earned over $8 million last year.

The bullpen wasn’t much better either, as they would finish with an unspectacular 4.24 ERA, 23^rd in MLB. Daniel Bard was very effective as a set-up man, recording 32 holds along with a 1.93 ERA and a WHIP of 1. Jonathan Papelbon, despite his 37 saves, was humbled quite a bit this year, as he finished with a league-high eight blown saves along with a 3.90 ERA. Nobody else in the bullpen would finish with an ERA under four.

If you want to find a real concrete reason why Boston missed the playoffs, this is it. They finished 22^nd in ERA (4.19), 17^th in WHIP (1.36) and 15^th in home runs allowed (152). Their staff definitely has the capability of being better, and they simply did not show that in 2010.

Final Grade: C-

Wild Card: Terry Francona

While I have always thought Francona only looked good because of Boston’s deep pockets, I have to give him kudos for the fantastic job he did this year of keeping this team together, and keeping them focused on the pennant chase. The amount of injuries this team suffered would have decimated even the best of teams, but Francona seems to have instilled a “never say die” spirit in this team that has shown itself time and time again since 2004. While I don’t think he should have won manager of the year, I could easily make a better case for him winning it than Minnesota’s Ron Gardenhire.

Final Grade: A+

Overall:

This team will definitely be right back in the thick of things this year, if they stay healthy. However, their pitching staff needs to do a better job to ensure that the team won’t fall victim to the same problem twice.

Final Grade: B+

Check back soon for the report card on the San Diego Padres!

Is tweaking the Wild Card format a good idea?

Recently, Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated and Jayson Stark of ESPN were presenting an idea that would alter baseball's current postseason format. Both writers were crediting the idea to Steve Hirdt, of the Elias Sports Bureau, who originally suggested the notion. His concept is to add another Wild Card to the postseason, in order to spice up the races in each league. This idea is coming as a result of the lack of drama in the American League East, where both the Yankees and Rays are essentially assured of a postseason spot, whether it is via the Wild Card or by winning the division title.

Even though the postseason field would be expanded with this idea, the extra "round" would actually be just one game, a Wild Card Elimination game. The two teams with the two best second-place records would play a do-or-die elimination game immediately after the conclusion of the regular season, with the winner going on to play a division winner in the Division Series. Hypothetically speaking, if there was a "Wild Card Elimination Game" last year, it would have featured the Rangers playing the Red Sox in Boston and the Giants playing the Rockies in Colorado. This would also put the Wild Card team at a further disadvantage, since they would likely have to use their best starter in this play-in game, and would have to shuffle their rotation for the next round of postseason play. Also, since they would be the "Wild Card Champion," they would still not have home-field advantage in the Division Series or League Championship Series.

While this idea is certainly fresh and exciting, I can't help but to think how unfair it is. Let's take for example this year's American League race. How fair is it to Tampa Bay (who's roughly on pace to win 98 games) to have to face either the Red Sox or White Sox in an elimination game, despite the fact that they will probably finish with seven or eight more wins than either team? Tampa clearly would have shown that they were the better of the "Wild Card" teams, so why make them have to play their way in? Besides, if the Red Sox or White Sox wanted a fighting chance at a playoff spot, they should have played better in the first 162 games anyway.

Also, this just seems like a knee-jerk reaction to an otherwise lackluster postseason race in the American League. Really, how often is it that all four AL playoff spots are essentially wrapped up with two weeks left in the season? There's no shortage of drama in the National League right now, as the Braves, Phillies, Rockies, Giants and Padres are all battling for the last three playoff spots (the Reds, barring a monumental collapse, are essentially in). In fact, there's only a game and a half that separates first place from third in the NL West. Why would you need to artificially create more drama when it's already there to begin with?

Plus, I kind of like the exclusivity the MLB postseason brings. Only eight teams out of 30 get in. That means you are treated to great baseball more often than not when October rolls around. I wouldn't want to see the playoff field diluted with more teams getting in, even if it is for just one game, or a "best-of-three" series. Besides, why would you want to reward more teams for not finishing in first place? Making the playoffs should still be an accomplishment, not a free-for-all like the NBA or NHL, where 16 out of 30 teams make their way in with both leagues (I'm not saying that I don't like the NBA or NHL, I just don't like their bloated playoff field). It's still a special feeling watching your team celebrate when they make it in, and adding more teams to the mix kind of cheapens the accomplishment for me.

Perhaps the only change I would like to see in baseball's postseason is the one suggested by Angels' manager Mike Scioscia, who is also on Bud Selig's panel for on-field issues. His suggestion was to shorten the regular season by four games to 158, and make the Division Series a best-of-seven. This makes sense to me because the quality of teams that get into the postseason is still generally pretty good, anomalies notwithstanding. Witnessing a best-of-seven first round would make an already exciting postseason format even more compelling to watch. Also, the somewhat-truncated regular-season schedule can allow for the playoffs to be expanded, and for them to end before November. I personally would love to see the powers-that-be try to make this a reality, only as long as the month of November isn't involved.

The 30 Day/30 Team Report Cards: Day 27- Boston Red Sox

Hello once again, everyone! I'm a little bit behind on this obviously, so I'm trying to knock as many of these out as possible before school gets into full swing again. Here is the next report card, which will be issued to the Boston Red Sox.

Boston Red Sox:
Record: 95-67 (Second place in AL East, eight games behind New York. AL Wild Card Champions).

Batting Leaders:
Batting Average: Kevin Youkilis (.305)
Home Runs: Jason Bay (36)
RBIs: Jason Bay (119)
On-base Percentage: Kevin Youkilis (.413)

Pitching Leaders:
Wins: Josh Beckett (17)
ERA: Jon Lester (3.41). Bullpen- Jonathan Papelbon (1.85)
Strikeouts: Jon Lester (225)
Innings Pitched: Josh Beckett (212.1)
WHIP: Josh Beckett (1.19)
Saves: Jonathan Papelbon (38)

Highlight of the Season: Clinching the AL Wild Card on September 29, despite losing to Toronto 8-7. It was their fifth Wild Card victory, and their sixth overall postseason appearance of the decade.

Lowlight of the Season: A devastating 7-6 loss to the Angels in Game Three of the Division Series on October 11, which eliminated them from the postseason. The Angels rallying from a 6-4 deficit to win the game in the top of the ninth, was especially stinging.

The Lowdown:
It was another fantastic season for the Boston Red Sox, as they rolled to their sixth postseason appearance of the decade, behind strong pitching and timely hitting. Finishing second with 95 wins was just another example of how strong the AL East is, as they still finished a whopping eight games behind the Yankees. It was still the usual suspects in their pitching rotation that led them back to the postseason, as Josh Beckett and Jon Lester were their usual selves during the season. Their lineup was also solid, despite the struggles of David Ortiz, as Jason Bay, Kevin Youkilis, and several others had solid seasons at the plate. Put it all together, and you have yourself a pretty good team. The only surprising thing that came out of this season from Boston was how they went down in the playoffs, which was a 3-0 wipeout at the hands of the Angels in the first round. While the Angels were great too, it was still shocking that such a good team would go out with such a whimper in the postseason. Let's take a look at their offense from last year, to see how they stacked up.

Offense:
Boston's offense in 2009 was strong once again, but the person that led the way for them was somebody you would least expect. Jason Bay was the main power source in the Red Sox's lineup this season, as he put together a stellar campaign, hitting 36 home runs while driving in 119, to go along with a strong .384 on-base percentage. He was aided by an eclectic mix of power, contact and speed within the lineup, as Kevin Youkilis, Mike Lowell, Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury each put together solid seasons for the Carmines. Youkilis had another great all-around season at the plate, hitting a team-best .305, with 27 home runs and 94 RBIs, to go along with a robust .413 OBP. Lowell and Pedroia each hit well for average, to go along with modest power numbers, as Lowell hit .290, with 17 homers and Pedroia hit .296, with 15 homers. Ellsbury was the speed threat at the top of the order, as he pilfered a major-league best 70 bases in '09.

Despite all of the bright spots in Boston's order, the one person that received the most attention in their lineup was David Ortiz, and it was not the kind of attention that he would have liked, either. Ortiz struggled mightily during the first half of the season, as he hit only .222, with just 12 home runs and 47 RBIs before the break. Adding insult to injury during his dreadful season was the revelation on July 31 that he tested positive for steroids in 2003. He would eventually apologize for the "distraction" that he caused, and he would go on to have a modest improvement in the second half, hitting .258, with 16 homers and 52 RBIs to finish with a .258 average, 28 home runs and a solid 99 RBIs. Jason Bay's season, along with the overall depth in the lineup, was able to pick up the slack for Ortiz, who had an uncharacteristic down year.

Overall, Boston finished third in runs scored (872), second in doubles (335), fourth in home runs (212), second in OBP (.352) and tied for fourth in batting average (.270). Even Ortiz's poor season could not keep this lineup from being one of the best in baseball.
Final Grade: A+

Pitching:
Boston's rotation was buoyed by the strong performances of their two best pitchers, Josh Beckett and Jon Lester. Beckett had another great season for the Carmines, as he finished 17-6, with a 3.86 ERA and 199 strikeouts in 212.1 innings. His 1.19 WHIP was also among the AL's best, as well. However, his performance was possibly upstaged by Lester, who went 15-8, with a 3.41 ERA to go along with 225 strikeouts in 203.1 innings. While his WHIP was slightly higher than Beckett's at 1.23, his ERA was significantly lower and his strikeout total was higher, despite throwing less innings than his counterpart. It was a fantastic season for the left-hander, and if he continues his brilliance, he will definitely be a Cy Young candidate in 2010.

Behind those two were injuries and mediocrity in the rotation, as many of the other pitchers had a hard time coming close to equaling Beckett and Lester's production. Ancient knuckleballer Tim Wakefield had a decent 11-5 record, but this was likely the result of good run support, as his ERA was 4.58. Brad Penny was a disappointment in 2009, as he started 24 games for Boston before being released on August 27. In that time though, he went a pedestrian 7-8, with a bloated ERA of 5.61. Daisuke Matsuzaka and John Smoltz weren't much better either, as Matsuzaka went 4-6, with a 5.76 ERA in an injury-riddled season, and Smoltz was just terrible, going 2-5, with an 8.33 ERA. It was a great thing that Boston had Beckett and Lester at the top of their rotation, because the team would have definitely sunk without those two.

If you are going to have a lackluster three-through-five in your rotation, you better have a great bullpen who can back them up. Boston did have this in '09, as the quintet of Ramon Ramirez, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Takashi Saito and Daniel Bard proved to be very effective at maintaining leads and cleaning up the mess from the bottom three of the rotation. Ramirez appeared in the most games in the 'pen this season (70) and he did not disappoint, as he put together a solid 2.84 ERA in 69.2 innings. Okajima had another solid season as the set-up man to Papelbon, recording 24 holds and fashioning a 3.39 ERA in the process. Saito's performance in the bullpen was very underrated, as he appeared in 56 games and put together a great 2.43 ERA. Also, rookie Daniel Bard proved to be the possible closer of the future in Boston, as he struck out an impressive 63 batters in 49.1 innings. For right now though, the man at the end of games was still Jonathan Papelbon, and he was still very effective, going 38-41 in saves this year with a 1.85 ERA.

Collectively, the staff was pretty mediocre in '09, as they finished 16th in ERA (4.35), 20th in runs allowed (736) and 20th in opponent's batting average (.267). As I mentioned earlier, this team would have been in a heap of trouble if they did not have Lester and Beckett. Heck, they would have been in trouble if one of those two would have went down with an injury.
Final Grade: C+

Wild Card: Speed
The Red Sox are historically known for not having any real speedsters on their roster. However, that has been changing in recent years with the addition of Jacoby Ellsbury, who stole a MLB-best 70 bases in '09. Dustin Pedroia has also demonstrated his ability to steal bases, as he pilfered 20 of his own last year as well. Overall, the Red Sox stole 126 bases as a team last year, which was good for fifth in the majors. Adding the extra dimension of speed to their lineup makes them much more dangerous than in recent memory, because now, they do not need to beat you with just the longball.
Final Grade: A-

Overall:
This was another great season for the Red Sox. However, it just wasn't their year to go deep into the playoffs, because once the Angels defeated their two best starters to go up 2-0, you just knew that the fat lady had sung on their season. Their rotation is stronger heading into 2010with the arrival of John Lackey, but will they continue to put up enough runs now that Bay is gone, Holliday's off the market, and Ortiz is declining? We shall see.
Final Grade: A-

Check back soon for the report card on the Los Angeles Dodgers!