Two more races in MLB, Shades of 1968 and The Pirates

Things have become considerably more interesting since the last time I joined you. Both the Tampa Bay Rays and St. Louis Cardinals have fought their way back into contention, trying desperately to do their best 2007 Rockies impressions. Despite their back-to-back losses against Baltimore, the Rays begin a crucial four-game series in Boston tonight, as they trail the Red Sox by four in the Wild Card race.

Tampa has closed the gap in the AL Wild Card,
but can they overkate Boston?

Meanwhile, in the National League, the Cardinals continue to put pressure on Milwaukee and Atlanta, as they trail the Braves by 4.5 in the Wild Card and the Brewers by 5.5 in the Central. The Cardinals are 7-3 in their last 10 games, while the Braves and Brewers are both 4-6 in their last 10 contests.

Who has the better shot at making a comeback and reaching the postseason? Right now, I would have to say Tampa Bay, only because they still control their own destiny. They have four games left with the Red Sox and a whopping seven left against the Yankees, so they can not only set their sights on the Wild Card, but the division title as well. The Cardinals however, are not so fortunate. They do not have any  games left against the Brewers or the Braves, meaning that their margin for error is very small, and they do not control their own fate. If the Braves go 6-6 in their final 12 games, the Cardinals will need to go 11-2 to force a one-game playoff. If Milwaukee goes 6-6 in their final 12, St. Louis will need to go 12-1 to tie them, both of which are very tall orders.

Two losses are all the Cards can affford
at this point.

They also begin a four-game series in Philadelphia tomorrow, which further complicates matters. If they escape Philadelphia with a series victory or a split (barring how the Brewers and Braves fare this weekend), the Cards may have a decent shot at coming back, as they finish the season out against the Mets, Cubs and Astros. With the way things stand right now, I would say Brewers fans do not need to be too concerned. However, if the Cardinals escape Philadelphia without a series loss and the Braves fail to gain any ground, then there might be cause for concern in Atlanta.






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Shades of 1968

On the flip side of things are the Detroit Tigers, who are currently riding a 12-game winning streak, their best since 1934. After their dismantling of my White Sox, they can wrap up the AL Central race as early as tonight, provided that they win and the Indians lose. If not tonight, then things will definitely be wrapped up by Sunday.

Another thing to look at with the Tigers' recent surge is whether or not they have a shot at finishing with the AL's best record. Right now, they currently sit at 87-62, just 3.5 behind the Yankees. If Detroit can stay hot, they have a decent shot at delivering one of the bigger surprises of the postseason before it even begins: taking home the best record in the AL. The Tigers have not finished with the AL's best record since 1987, so we'll see.

Tigers pitcher Denny McLain, who went 31-6 with a 1.96 ERA in 1968.

On another note, this team has some eerie resemblances to the 1968 squad that won it all. The '68 Tigers also got white-hot in September, reeling off an 11-game win streak between the 9th and the 21st of that month. Motown's crew in '68 also featured Denny McLain, MLB's last 30-game winner, who would take home both the Cy Young and MVP award in the American League that season. Justin Verlander isn't going to win 30 games, but he still has an outside shot at becoming the first Tigers pitcher to 25 wins since Mickey Lolich in 1971 and to win the AL MVP, which no Tigers pitcher has won since Willie Hernandez in 1984. This year's AL Cy Young is already a forgone conclusion, and it will be a shock if Verlander does not win it.

The '68 Tigers and this year's squad also received big offensive contributions from their catchers. The '68 Tigers got a big year out of Bill Freehan, who finished with a .263 average, 25 homers and 84 RBIs during "the year of the pitcher," when offense was scarce and the AL's best batting average was .301. Alex Avila is having a terrific year behind the plate for Detroit, as he has a .301 batting average, 19 home runs, 77 RBIs and is slugging .577. Also ironic is the fact that both catchers started the All-Star Game for the AL, Freehan at the Astrodome, Avila at Chase Field.

The '68 squad also clinched early, winning the AL on September 17 and finishing 12 games ahead of the Baltimore Orioles in what would be the final year before divisional play (the team with the best record went to the World Series from 1903-1968). This year's Tigers will definitely clinch their division early too, and if they cool off for just two days, it could very well be on the 17th too.


Since I'm teetering into the realm of speculation, I'll end the comparisons on this note. The Tigers in '68, despite finishing with 103 victories, were underdogs in the World Series against the defending-World Champion St. Louis Cardinals, who boasted MLB's best pitcher that year, Bob Gibson. Detroit went down 3-1 in that year's series before making an improbable comeback to win it all, defeating Bob Gibson in Game Seven. Would it not be crazy if something similar were to happen this year, if the Tigers were to face Philadelphia (I know they aren't the defending champions, but they are the most comparable NL team), and pull off a seven-game series victory, defeating Roy Halladay in Game Seven? I know, I'm stretching here, but baseball can be a funny game sometimes.

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Oh those Pirates

The Bucs clinched their 19th consecutive losing season with a 3-2 loss against the Cardinals last night. I know Pittsburgh fans have likely gotten used to the losing seasons, but this one had to sting a little bit more, considering they were in a tie for first as late as July 25. However, the Bucs have not been the same since their 19-inning loss in Atlanta featuring quite possibly the worst call I have ever witnessed during a Major League game. They have not been the same since that ill-fated evening.

                                Jerry Meals, how could you?

However, there are some positives to be taken from this season. For starters, they will not lose 100 games this year, and their final record will stand as a significant improvement over last year. The Bucs still need pitching help badly, but Andrew McCutchen and Neil Walker look like they can both be the two players Pittsburgh can build their franchise around. If you also factor in that Pedro Alvarez and Jose Tabata both have the potential to improve (despite their dismal performances this year), their streak of losing seasons can end very soon.

That's all for now. Take care.