- With Opening Day quickly approaching, it's always fun to predict how the season will play itself out. Here's how I think the 2011 season will go down. It'll be more fun seeing how wrong I am at the end of the season, too. Let's go!
Division Predictions (asterisk denotes Wild Card winner)
AL East:
1. Boston Red Sox (97-65). The new acquisitions of first baseman Adrian Gonzalez and left fielder Carl Crawford will pay huge dividends to a team that is already very talented. Should everybody stay healthy, a division title is a certain lock for the Carmines.
2. New York Yankees (88-74). Their lineup will still mash, but will their pitching be deep enough behind C.C. Sabathia to keep pace with the rest of the AL? My guess is that it won't be.
3. Toronto Blue Jays (86-76). Much like the Yankees, the Jays will have a very formidable lineup, but there are still several question marks regarding their pitching. Also, will Jose Bautista have an encore performance at the plate this year? Chances are that he won't hit 54 home runs again, but he'll still be a very intimidating presence in their lineup.
4. Tampa Bay Rays (79-83). The Rays may say that their pitching will still be good, but the losses of Carl Crawford, Rafael Soriano, Carlos Pena, Jason Bartlett and Matt Garza will just be too much for them to overcome.
5. Baltimore Orioles (69-93). Their lineup looks better, and they have some young pitchers with the potential to be good, but I still think they're a year or two away from moving out of the AL East basement.
AL Central:
1. Chicago White Sox (93-69). With the new acquisition of 1B/DH Adam Dunn, Chicago's lineup will easily be the toughest in the division. Their pitching, while not overwhelming, will be good enough for them to capture their fourth division title since 2000.
2. *Minnesota Twins (91-71). Even though they did not do much to improve themselves in the off-season, the Twins usually still find a way to get things done, and this year won't be any different, as they will capture the American League Wild Card.
3. Detroit Tigers (87-75). They will certainly improve on last year's mediocre performance, but will their starting rotation be deep enough behind Verlander to propel them to the postseason. My guess is that they will be good, but not good enough.
4. Kansas City Royals (68-94). Apparently they have the best farm system in baseball, so their days of misery may not last for too much longer. However, they won't be good at all this year.
5. Cleveland Indians (61-101). Their bullpen improved last year, but that still doesn't make up for a dreadful starting rotation, and a lineup that has a steep talent drop off once you look past Shin Soo-Choo and Grady Sizemore.
AL West:
1. Texas Rangers (88-74). A strong lineup coupled with some solid pitching will vault the defending American League Champions back into the playoffs.
2. Oakland A's (87-75). Oakland will put up a fight, as they will boast the best starting rotation in the American League for the second year in a row. However, their lack of offense will get the best of them.
3. Los Angeles Angels (78-84). Losing out in the free agent sweepstakes will definitely cost the Angels this year, as their lineup continues to age.
4. Seattle Mariners (65-97). At least they have Ichiro and Felix Hernandez to keep people interested.
NL East:
1. Philadelphia Phillies (102-60). The Phillies will roll to a fifth consecutive division crown behind the best rotation in baseball and a very strong lineup.
2. Atlanta Braves (86-76). The Braves will be solid, but will they be good enough to reach the postseason again? With the multitude of deep teams in the NL, I don't think Atlanta quite stacks up to the rest of the pack. Besides, if it wasn't for San Diego's September collapse last year, the Braves would not have reached the postseason.
3. Florida Marlins (81-81). They always seem to be stuck in gear. They are the MLB poster-child for "average."
4. New York Mets (77-85). They could potentially be better, but we've been saying that for the last couple of years. I'll let them prove it to me before I put them ahead of the Marlins.
5. Washington Nationals (67-95). DC's lineup should be okay, but their pitching will be wretched, especially without Strasburg.
NL Central:
1. Milwaukee Brewers (95-67). The Brew Crew are going "all in" this year, and with the additions of Zack Greinke and Shawn Marcum to their starting rotation, the Crew will have their best season since 1982.
2. *Cincinnati Reds (93-69). Their lineup will be great again, but their pitching should be even better than last year, as their young arms will certainly improve.
3. St. Louis Cardinals (84-78). Losing Adam Wainwright for the season will really, really hurt the Cards. Plus, an erratic lineup behind Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday certainly won't help matters.
4. Chicago Cubs (82-80). They won't be as dreadful as they were last year, but any improvements they make this year will be only marginal.
5. Houston Astros (70-92). Not much to say about the Astros, other than they aren't all that great.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates (65-97). The Bucs will be dreadful, but they won't lose 100 games again. Their lineup will be stronger than most people expect, but their pitching will easily be the worst in baseball.
NL West:
1. Colorado Rockies (91-71). In a very competitive division, the Rockies will march to their first division title in team history behind a strong lineup and some solid pitching.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers (90-72). LA will narrowly miss the playoffs, but they will hang tough into the final week of the season behind a decent offense and a deep rotation.
3. San Francisco Giants (80-82). The defending World Champions will experience a lay over, as their offense won't be nearly as clutch as they were last year.
4. San Diego Padres (73-89). Last year was a fluke, trust me. They'll get a good year out of Mat Latos however, as he will settle in even more to become the unquestioned staff ace.
5. Arizona Diamondbacks (68-94). They'll improve marginally, but they still won't be that good.
Postseason
American League Division Series:
Boston Red Sox over Minnesota Twins 3-2. The Twins will finally win a playoff game, and not only that, they'll push Boston to a fifth and deciding game before the Red Sox take care of business at home.
Chicago White Sox over Texas Rangers 3-0. Chicago will make easy work of the defending American League Champions, sweeping them out of the playoffs.
National League Division Series:
Philadelphia Phillies over Cincinnati Reds 3-1. Bad luck will strike the Reds again in the form of facing the formidable Philadelphia Phillies, but they won't get swept this time though.
Milwaukee Brewers over Colorado Rockies 3-1. Milwaukee will finish off the Rockies in an easy four games.
American League Championship Series:
Chicago White Sox over Boston Red Sox 4-3. The White Sox, in shocking fashion, will take down the heavily-favored Boston Red Sox in seven games.
National League Championship Series: Philadelphia Phillies over Milwaukee Brewers 4-2. The Phillies will reach the World Series again for the third time in four years, but not without a fight, as Milwaukee will give them fits.
World Series
Philadelphia Phillies over Chicago White Sox 4-1. The Phillies are just too strong for Chicago, dispatching them in a quick and easy five games to take home their third title in team history. I'm not completely drinking the kool-aid right now.
Awards
AL MVP: Carl Crawford, Boston Red Sox.
NL MVP: Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers.
AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers.
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies.
AL Rookie of the Year: Kyle Drabek, Toronto Blue Jays.
NL Rookie of the Year: Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds.
AL Manager of the Year: Bob Geren, Oakland A's.
NL Manager of the Year: Ron Roenicke, Milwaukee Brewers.
Other wild and ridiculous predictions:
- Joey Votto will not repeat as a MVP winner, but he'll become the first Reds player in 38 years to win a batting title, hitting .347.
- Adam Dunn will have a field day in Chicago, becoming the first player in White Sox history to hit over 50 home runs. He'll finish with 53.
- There will be four 20-game winners in baseball this year, with two of them coming from the Phillies (Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee). John Danks of the White Sox and Justin Verlander of the Tigers will be the others.
- Verlander will have the best year of his career by far, as he will become the first pitcher since 2002 to strike out 300 batters in a season.
- The National League will win the All-Star Game once again, securing home field advantage in the World Series for the second year in a row.
- After 32 years of managing and after a disappointing third-place finish, the Cardinals' Tony LaRussa will announce his retirement at season's end.
- Even though the Nationals insist that this won't happen, star prospect Bryce Harper will be called up to the big leagues in September.
As I already mentioned at the beginning of this post, I may be completely wrong at the end of the year when I go back and look at this. However, it's always fun to make predictions on how the year will turn out, then looking back to see how right or how wrong you are!
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