Monday, March 5, 2012

The Top Ten Closers in MLB Today/Thoughts on the Expanded Postseason

This list is perhaps the most transitory and volatile of them all. Unlike the other lists, what each closer has done over the last few seasons will carry slightly more weight on this one.



10.) Brian Wilson, San Francisco Giants
2011 stats: 57 games, 36 saves in 41 chances, 3.11 ERA, 1.47 WHIP
Wilson struggled a bit last year due to injuries, but he has been rock solid closing games for San Francisco during the last couple of seasons. The fact that his WHIP increased by 29 points has him lower on this list entering 2012, to go along with an inflated ERA for a closer.






9.) Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
2011 stats: 79 games, 46 saves in 54 chances, 2.10 ERA, 1.04 WHIP
The sheer difficulty of being a rookie closer on a contender was enough for me to place Kimbrel on this list. Along with John Axford, Kimbrel finished with a NL-high 46 saves in addition to a terrific 2.10 ERA. His only blemish was eight blown saves, which was the second-most in the NL, only trailing the Cubs' Carlos Marmol on that undesirable list. Nonetheless, his performance was good enough for him to earn Rookie of the Year honors in the National League, and we will see if he can build off of his success this year.




8.) John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers
2011 stats: 74 games, 46 saves in 48 chances, 1.95 ERA, 1.14 WHIP
Axford temporarily stepped into the closer's role in 2010 following Trevor Hoffman's implosion, and filled the role admirably, recording 24 saves in 27 chances to go along with a 2.84 ERA. He finally broke out last year though, tying for the National League lead in saves with 46, while recording an outstanding 1.95 ERA.





7.) Francisco Cordero, Toronto Blue Jays
2011 stats: 68 games, 37 saves in 43 chances, 2.45 ERA, 1.02 WHIP
Reds fans might be scratching their heads at this, but if you look at his stats, they were better than what people perceive them to be. His WHIP of 1.02 places him among baseball's best closers, as only Jonathan Papelbon, Mariano Rivera and J.J. Putz were better in that category last year. Additionally, his 37 saves placed him in the top ten in the majors, finishing in a tie for ninth with Seattle's Brandon League. His only blemish was six blown saves, however when you consider 11 other closers had more blown saves (including Craig Kimbrel who made this list), it does not appear nearly as bad. His 2011 season was far better than his 2010 season (eight blown saves, a 3.84 ERA), and was more on par with his '09 campaign (2.16 ERA, 39/43 in saves). He will likely set up for former White Sox closer Sergio Santos with the Blue Jays this season.




6.) J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
2011 stats: 60 games, 45 saves in 49 chances, 2.17 ERA, 0.91 WHIP
Putz returned to form for the Diamondbacks last year after spending a year in the set-up role for the White Sox in 2010. He finished fourth in the majors in saves with 45 while recording a spectacular WHIP of 0.90, second-best in the majors to the great Mariano Rivera. Behind every great team is a stable bullpen, and he played a big role in helping the Diamondbacks win the NL West last year by slamming the door at the end of games with efficency.









5.) Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers
2011 stats: 64 games, 32 saves in 38 chances, 2.74 ERA, 1.16 WHIP
In his short career, Feliz has been the stopper at the end of games for the Rangers, and played an instrumental part in helping his team win consecutive American League Pennants. Armed with an explosive fastball, Feliz will now be moved into Texas' rotation in favor of the aging Joe Nathan. Despite Feliz's Game 6 meltdown in the World Series last year, I honestly believe Texas will regret having Nathan close out games. He was so ineffective last year that he was removed from the closer's role for a time, as Minnesota replaced him with Matt Capps. Plus, if the 37-year-old Nathan falters, who will close games for the Rangers in his place?





4.) Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies
2011 stats: 63 games, 31 saves in 34 chances, 2.94 ERA, 0.93 WHIP
Given the short shelf life of many closers, I was not a big fan of the hefty contract the Phillies handed Papelbon this winter. While he did not finish in the top ten in saves last year, he lowered his ERA by a full run while lowering his WHIP by a whopping 34 points (1.27 in 2010 to 0.93 last year). Aside from a dreadful 2010 season in which he blew eight saves, Papelbon has proven to be one of baseball's more effective closers the last few seasons. Still, you have to ask the question: is he (or any closer for that matter) worth four years and $50 million?




3.) Heath Bell, Miami Marlins
2011 stats: 64 games, 43 saves in 48 chances, 2.44 ERA, 1.15 WHIP
While it was somewhat surprising the Padres did not bother trading their prized closer last year, their loss was the Marlins' gain in the offseason. Bell will definitely be a huge upgrade over the former Leo Nunez (now Juan Oviedo), who could be incredibly shaky (a combined 14 blown saves the last two seasons). Bell will definitely provide a great amount of stability to a Marlins bullpen that is in desperate need of it.


2.) Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
2011 stats: 75 games, 49 saves in 49 chances, 2.24 ERA, 1.19 WHIP
"Papa Grande" was at his best last year, going 49 for 49 in the regular season in saves, then recording three more in the playoffs unscathed. While his 1.19 WHIP may not be on par with some of his peers (it's the second-highest on this particular list), it's hard to argue with results.




1.) Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees
2011 stats: 64 games, 44 saves in 49 chances, 1.91 ERA, 0.90 WHIP
Until he has a year in which he blows 10 saves and records an ERA of five, he's my number one. Do I really need to explain this one? My only question with Rivera is his age. Closers typically do not experience a gradual decline, they fall off a cliff (see Trevor Hoffman). While Rivera has been a machine for so long, he is also 42, meaning the time for him to experience that inevitable drop off will occur sooner rather than later. His contemporary, Trevor Hoffman, had the worst year of his career at 42 (recording a 5.89 ERA) and called it quits at the end of that season. Considering that Rivera hinted at retirement not long ago, he may call it a career before he gets to that point.

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Baseball's New Playoff Format
More underdog teams can reach
the postseason with the new Wild Card format. 
As many of you have already heard, MLB will expand their playoff format for the first time since 1995, and only for the third time in history. Long story short, there will be two Wild Cards, and they will play each other in a one-game, do-or-die, winner-take-all contest. In a bizarre turn of events, MLB decided on beginning this at the end of the 2012 season as opposed to next year, despite the fact that it took them until the beginning of Spring Training to finally reach a decision.

I am all for this current system, but if they were indecisive for so long regarding whether or not they should do it for this year, why not just start it next year? There will already be significant changes to scheduling for next year (year-round interleague play, plus the World Baseball Classic), so the extra Wild Card would have been the cherry on top of the sundae. Plus, you could take all year to create the 2013 schedule to ensure that you are not rushing into this, and that you are taking plenty of time to get things right. Oh well, that's all null and void now.

Nonetheless, I love this!  The extra Wild Card creates the opportunity for more "Cinderella" and "underdog" teams that fans and media have come to appreciate. For the first time in history, you could honestly have a third-place team win the World Series!

The road for the Wild Card teams to win it all however, has become significantly tougher. They will likely have to use their number one starter in the playoff game (if they haven't already used him just to reach the game to begin with), and they will have to travel to their next city shortly afterwards if they win that game. Meanwhile, the division winner will have their entire team rested and ready to go for the Division Series. Obviously, this places more emphasis on finishing in first-place in your division, which I appreciate as well.

Additionally, when you take a look at how the Wild Card play-in game would have looked in the past decade, it is salivating to think about the possible scenarios. Here's how the play-in game would have looked since 2002:

2002 American League:
Boston Red Sox/Seattle Mariners (93-69) @ Anaheim Angels (99-63)
Here, we would have seen a tie-breaker game to determine who would get the right to face the Angels at Angel Stadium. Since the M's finished with a winning record against the Carmines (5-4), Boston would have went to Seattle for their one-game showdown against Lou Piniella's squad. I'm also certain that if Seattle defeated Boston, the Mariners and their fans would have liked one more opportunity at facing the Angels, who they went 10-9 against during the regular season.

2002 National League:
Los Angeles Dodgers (92-70) @ San Francisco Giants (95-66)
Oh boy, one of baseball's best rivalries taking place in a winner-take-all game? Mercy!

2003 American League:
Seattle Mariners (93-69) @ Boston Red Sox (95-67)
Taking the Yankees out of the equation, this could have been a nice rivalry here. The Mariners facing the Red Sox yet again, but this time it would be for the Wild Card, not the right to advance to the playoff game like the previous year. 

2003 National League:
Houston Astros (87-75) @ Florida Marlins (91-71)
The Astros finished just one game behind the Cubs in the NL Central that year, which had to be excruciating. Here, they would have received one more opportunity to play in October, squaring off against Jack McKeon's young upstart squad in Florida.

2004 American League:
Oakland Athletics (91-71) @ Boston Red Sox (98-64)
Perhaps the most intriguing one of them all? Everything we hear about the 2004 Red Sox would have never occurred if the A's won this matchup. You would not have heard about Dave Roberts' ninth-inning stolen base off of Mariano Rivera, Bill Mueller's game-tying single against him, David Ortiz's walk-off hits, the bloody sock, none of that. Come to think of it, I think I would have liked that scenario.

2004 National League:
San Francisco Giants (91-71) @ Houston Astros (92-70)
This would have represented the second consecutive year the Astros participated in this game. Meanwhile, this would have meant one more chance for Barry Bonds to make the playoffs and have a chance at winning a World Series ring.

2005 American League:
Cleveland Indians (93-69) @ Boston Red Sox (95-67)
Since the Yankees were declared division winners that year, the Indians would have needed to travel to Boston for their playoff game. This also represents the third consecutive season in which Boston would have participated in this game.

2005 National League:
Philadelphia Phillies (88-74) @ Houston Astros (89-73)
This would not have been another excruciating near-miss for the Phillies, as they would get one more shot at those pesky Astros.

2006 American League:
Chicago White Sox (90-72) @ Detroit Tigers (95-67)
Oh boy, I would have loved this one. After Detroit and Chicago duked it out for most of the summer, the Twins stunned everyone by storming back to win the division. One reason for this was Detroit's second-half fade. The Tigers were 40 games over .500 (76-36) and ten games up on Chicago as late as August 7. The Twins were still a half-game behind the White Sox in third place, 10.5 behind Detroit. The Tigers appeared to be destined to win their first division title since 1987. However, Detroit faded badly after that, going 19-31 while the Twins went 31-20 to win the division on the final day of the season, despite never holding a lead at any other point during the year (the first time in MLB history such a feat has occurred). Detroit's hot start actually padded their downfall and prevented a collapse that would have even made last year's Red Sox blush.

Meanwhile, the defending World Champion White Sox raced out to a fast start themselves during that epic summer in the AL Central. They were 56-29 on July 6 and they still were not in first place because of those upstart Tigers (Detroit was 57-28)! To put things into perspective so you can understand the frustration that many Sox fans (including myself) experienced that year, consider this: the White Sox were four games better than the next-best AL team (the Red Sox, who were leading the AL East) and were nine games ahead of the third-place Twins at that point! The White Sox faded badly from that point on, going 34-43, while Minnesota went 50-29 to win the Central. Compounding that frustration was having to watch the Cardinals win that year's World Series, a team Chicago dismantled during a three-game sweep in the regular-season (outscoring them by a combined 34-11), not to mention they had 11 more wins than St. Louis at that high-water mark of July 7.

That brings us to this matchup. You have two teams who, despite a historically fast start (at one point the Tigers were on pace to win 110 games, while the Sox were on pace to win 107) faded badly down the stretch. The White Sox were the defending World Champs, and the Tigers were the young upstarts trying to steal the show. Chicago actually finished 12-7 against Detroit that year, so I'm sure the Sox, along with myself and all of their fans, would have loved just one more shot at those stinkin' Tigers.

2006 National League:
Philadelphia Phillies (85-77) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (88-74)
The Padres were awarded the NL West title because of their head-to-head record. While the new rules in MLB stipulate that there will be another one-game playoff should two teams tie at the end of the season, let's try to forget about that for right now. This is not quite the heavyweight showdown you have going on in the AL during this year, more like a cruiserweight battle.

2007 American League:
Detroit Tigers/Seattle Mariners (88-74) @ New York Yankees (94-68)
Once again, you would have a play-in game to determine who moves on to New York to play the Yankees. Seattle that year was something of a surprise team, as they were only three years removed from a 99-loss season. Meanwhile, the Tigers were the defending AL Champs, and they hung tough against a young Cleveland squad that year. They were in first as late as August 16 of that year, but the Indians went on a tear shortly afterwards, finishing on a 30-12 kick to ultimately win the division by eight games. While the Tigers did not fall to pieces after August 16, they did not play all that well either, finishing 21-20 in that same timeframe.

2007 National League:
Colorado Rockies 9, San Diego Padres 8 F/13
There was actually a tie for the NL Wild Card that year, necessitating the need for a one-game playoff. It was everything you asked for from a game like this, and it easily was one of the most exciting baseball games of the last decade. "Rocktober" was just beginning in Colorado, as the team finished the regular season on a 15-1 tear to reach the playoffs for the first time since 1995.

2008 American League:
New York Yankees (89-73) @ Boston Red Sox (95-67)
Since the Rays shocked the world by taking the AL East, this represents the first time that New York and Boston would have locked horns in the Wild Card game.

2008 National League:
New York Mets (89-73) @ Milwaukee Brewers (90-72)
The Mets had another collapse this season, albeit not on the epic levels of '07. However, this would have been their one chance to put the 2007 demons to rest for good.

2009 American League:
Texas Rangers (87-75) @ Boston Red Sox (95-67)
Texas' run of postseason excellence could have begun a year early had they defeated the Red Sox in this game.

2009 National League:
San Francisco Giants (88-74) @ Coloardo Rockies (92-70)
The Giants went 10-8 against Coloardo that year, I'm sure they would have loved the opportunity to end Rocktober Part II.

2010 American League:
Boston Red Sox (89-73) @ New York Yankees (95-67)
The Red Sox would have edged out the White Sox by one game for the right to take on the Yankees in this particular season. That would have hurt significantly more than watching Jim Thome lead the Twins to a division title. If only Kenny Williams would have brought him back....

2010 National League:
San Diego Padres (90-72) @ Atlanta Braves (91-71)
The Padres faded badly during the last five weeks of the season, as they watched their 6.5 game lead on August 25 slip away. The leading factor in their demise was a horrific 10-game losing streak that began the next day and lasted through September 5. Meanwhile, the Giants played their best baseball of the season from that point on, going 21-13 en route to winning the West. The Padres would have received one more chance at redemption in this matchup at Turner Field.

2011 American League:
Boston Red Sox (90-72) @ Tampa Bay Rays (91-71)
No need to go over this one here, we all know the story by now. At one point, the Rays were 11.5 games behind Boston as late as July 27, and were nine back at the close of play on September 1. Tampa goes 17-9 the rest of the way, while Boston goes 7-19. The rest is history. Boston gets one more chance at redemption, much like the Padres of 2010.

2011 National League:
Atlanta Braves (89-73) @ St. Louis Cardinals (90-72)
During that same timeframe, the Cardinals trailed Atlanta by 8.5 games in the Wild Card hunt, but fell apart as well, going 8-18 while the Cardinals went 17-8. The Braves get one more chance at earning victory here, while the Cardinals would try to keep their hot streak alive.

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When you take a look at the last ten years, there is a remarkable amount of parity here, even in spite of the Red Sox's multiple appearances! You have a whopping 19 out of the 30 teams represented on here, and that's not including the teams that won their divisions outright! The only teams that this would not have helped would be the Kansas City Royals, Pittsburgh Pirates, Washington Nationals, Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles, as all five of their postseason droughts would still be intact. In fact, the only time any of those teams finished within three games of a possible "Wild Card Game" was in 2006 and 2008, when Toronto finished three games behind Chicago and New York, respectively.

I am not entirely sure if this feels like an actual postseason round (more like a Game 163, as in years past), but who cares! This will provide an extra wrinkle into the pennant races this year, and it will certainly make things more captivating heading into September, when you could still have a number of teams vying for a spot at the October dinner table. You could very realistically see the Nationals aiming for their first postseason appearance since 1981 (when they were still in Montreal), or you could see Kansas City shoot for their first appearance since 1985 should all go well with their pitching staff.

What's the best part of this? It just might give this White Sox fan a reason to be excited at the possibility of seeing his team reach the postseason again!


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