Projected 2012 Infield:
1B: Joey Votto
2B: Brandon Phillips
SS: Zack Cozart
3B: Scott Rolen
 |
| Could this year be the final one for Phillips in a Reds uniform? |
Meanwhile, the Reds have a dilemma at second base as to whether or not they can sign Brandon Phillips to an extension. There is no question that he is one of the best second basemen in the National League, and he continued to make that point clear by earning his third career Gold Glove and first career Silver Slugger last year. However his contract is up at the end of this season, and you wonder if the Reds possess the financial resources to keep him. They could re-sign him, sure. If they do that, then would they have enough money to bring Votto back? Do they realistically have a shot at keeping both players? This is just a sub-plot in what looks to be a crucial year in determining the Reds' future for the next few season.
Shifting over to shortstop, the Reds will be featuring a fresh face with the 26-year-old Zack Cozart likely receiving the lion's share of starts. They hope he will be an improvement over the duo of Edgar Renteria and Paul Janish at short, both of whom were dreadful at the plate last year. Renteria is gone, but Janish remains, likely in a bench/platoon role, which is perfect for him. Cozart saw some playing time at the big league level last year and hit well in his brief opportunity, finishing with a .324 average in 11 games. Unfortunately, his season at the big league level ended prematurely when he suffered an elbow injury on July 23.
Third base will likely be the achilles' heel for the Reds infield this year, as the ancient Scott Rolen returns for his 17th big league season. The big problem for him as usual is if he can stay healthy. He only appeared in 65 games last year due to shoulder surgery, his lowest total since 2005. He was not all that productive when he was in the lineup last year either, as his .242 batting average, five home runs and 36 RBI would attest. The Reds would like for him to return to his 2010 figures, when he hit .285 with 20 homers and 83 RBI in 133 games, however, does he have one more season like that left in him?
Todd Frazier and Juan Francisco would be the two candidates to take over at third should Rolen go down with another injury. Frazier hit .232 with six homers and 15 RBI last year in 41 games, while Francisco hit .258 with three homers and 15 RBI in 31 games. The 24-year-old Francisco also hit one of the more memorable home runs in Great American Ballpark history last year, blasting a home run off of the Cubs' Rodrigo Lopez that cleared the right field seats. The estimated distance of the home run was 502 feet.
Outfield:
LF: Chris Heisey
CF: Drew Stubbs
RF: Jay Bruce
 |
| Center fielder Drew Stubbs will look to have a bounce-back year in 2012. |
After an impressive breakout performance in 2010, Drew Stubbs took a big step back last year. His batting average went down from .255 to .243, he hit seven less homers and had 33 less RBI. Additionally, his strikeout total climbed to a major-league high 205 last year, 37 more than he had in 2010. Like Heisey, Stubbs possesses modest power, but features a better glove than his counterpart in left, to go along with more speed. Stubbs is only 27 and entering his third full big league season, so it will be interesting to see if he can rebound from the struggles he had at the plate in 2011. He is not your prototypical lead-off hitter, but you may see the Reds stick him or Phillips in that spot.
Jay Bruce is coming off a career year power-wise, hitting 32 homers while driving in 97. Even though his average fell 25 points to .256 and his strikeout total went up by 22, last year represented the fourth consecutive season in which his home run and RBI total rose. Logic should tell us that at just 24 years old, the best has yet to come for Bruce. Although his batting average may not be where you would like for it to be, I would look for him to have an outstanding year power-wise this season. Do not be surprised if he continues that streak to five consecutive years.
Catchers:
Ryan Hanigan
 |
| Devin Mesoraco will get his chance as the Reds' primary catcher in 2012. |
Ryan Hanigan will serve as the back-up catcher once again this season. He hit .267 last year serving as the secondary catcher to Ramon Hernandez, which is pretty solid for your bench guy.
Starting Rotation:
Johnny Cueto
Mat Latos
Bronson Arroyo
Mike Leake
Homer Bailey
Aroldis Chapman?
 |
| Mat Latos should provide a big boost to Cincinnati's rotation. |
Another culprit was Edinson Volquez. In only 20 starts, he recorded a dreadful 5.71 ERA, and the Reds managed to take him off their hands this offseason, trading him to San Diego along with Yonder Alonso and Yasmani Grandal in order to obtain Mat Latos. Consider the departure of Volquez addition by subtraction.
In a more postive light, Johnny Cueto emerged as the team's best starter last year, finishing with a 2.31 ERA and a spectacular WHIP of 1.09. He fell just six innings short of qualifying for the ERA title, as he was shut down in September due to injury. He enters this season as the unquestioned ace of the team, and they will need anything close to an encore performance from him in order to contend.
Another young arm they will need to come through big is Mat Latos. Just 24 years old, Latos brings three years of MLB experience already to the Reds, and a great deal of potential. However, the Reds had to surrender their two best prospects in order to obtain the young righty, as he was the centerpiece of that aforementioned deal with the Padres. While he took a slight step back from his outstanding 2010 season, he still finished with a solid 1.18 WHIP in 194.1 innings last year. Some may question whether he can carry his success from pitcher-friendly Petco Park to hitter-friendly Great American, but I believe that will not pose too much of an issue. Latos is a power pitcher who racks up Ks while staying around the plate, meaning whatever effect GABP might have on him will be minimal. He will finally receive the opportunity to pitch on a team that will provide him with ample run support, something which will also help as well.
Rounding out the rotation will be Mike Leake and Homer Bailey. Leake was solid in his second season with the club, leading the team in wins and strikeouts. His ERA also went down last year, falling from 4.23 to 3.86. Meanwhile, Bailey will look to finally establish some sort of consistency this season. While injuries have set the young Texan back the last two years, he looks to finally put together the kind of year many have expected from him since his much-anticipated MLB debut in 2007. Bailey has packed on some extra muscle to help with his endurance during the offseason, so we'll see how far his winter regimen takes him through the season. As always, it can be difficult to evaluate pitchers in Arizona in Spring Training, so we won't get to see the real fruits of his labor until the season begins.
The one question mark I placed at the very bottom of the rotation is Aroldis Chapman. The way things look now, it might appear as if he is destined for another season in the bullpen, as the team is using him out of there for the most part this spring. His ERA was somewhat high for a reliever last year (3.60), but when you take into account that he was likely going through some off-the-field issues (as manager Dusty Baker suggested in the provided link) that would distract any young player, he should be fine for this season. Nonetheless, with the kind of money the Reds are paying him, the debate of whether or not he should be a starter will continue to be the elephant in the room.
Bullpen:
Ryan Madson
Sean Marshall
Nick Masset
Logan Ondrusek
Jose Arrendondo
Bill Bray
Sam LeCure
Strangely enough, Cincinnati's bullpen actually improved last year, as their ERA fell from 3.97 in 2010 (15th in MLB) to 3.55 last year (11th in MLB). Seeing an opportunity to make themselves stronger in this area, the Reds traded lefty Travis Wood to the Chicago Cubs for lefty specialist Sean Marshall. The 29-year-old lefty was one of the best relievers in the National League last year, recording a 2.26 ERA in 78 appearances, to go along with a solid WHIP of 1.10. Travis Wood on the other hand struggled a bit in his sophomore season last year, recording a 4.84 ERA in 106 innings. Even though Wood has good upside, it really served the Reds no purpose to carry seven starters. This was a good move for them to make a decent bullpen even better.
Additionally, the Reds brought in former Phillies closer Ryan Madson via free agency to fill the void left by Francisco Cordero. While Cordero had a good year last year (37 saves, 1.02 WHIP, 2.45 ERA), they were also paying him $12 million in the final year of his contract. It's never good to have too much money tied up in a closer, and the fact that he is 36 gave the Reds further credence to follow the ancient Branch Rickey model of dealing with players. Instead of bringing him back at a cheaper cost, they simply parted ways with him. If you are wondering what the Branch Rickey model is, it basically means that it is better to get rid of a player a year too soon rather than a year too late.
Lefty Bill Bray will likely serve as the set-up man again this year. He recorded a team high 20 holds last season, and in 79 appearances, he finished with a 1.08 WHIP and a 2.98 ERA. Not too shabby. Also, many people forget that Bray, along with Brandon Phillips and Bronson Arroyo, are the longest tenured members of the team, as all three have been with the club since 2006.
Area that will improve: Starting Rotation and Bullpen.
The Reds significantly improved themselves in these areas, and considering their main two divisional foes (the Cardinals and Brewers) have gotten weaker, their entire staff should improve.
Area where they will regress: Third Base
I like Scott Rolen, but I cannot see him playing more than 100 games in a season anymore. They better have Juan Francisco and/or Todd Frazier ready.
Final Verdict: 94-68
This team has way too much on the table and way too much talent to lay an egg like they did last year, and they know it. They significantly improved themselves during the offseason, and while some still want to find fault with that (saying they surrendered too much young talent), the truth is that their best chance to win a championship is right now. GM Walt Jocketty knew this, and did what he could to place this team in a position to not only compete for their second division title in three years, but to shoot for their first World Series crown since 1990.
I do not understand why some people are so upset that the Reds traded away so much young talent. First of all, Yonder Alonso cannot play the outfield. He just cannot do it. There's also a MVP already playing first base, and who is under contract through next year. Why let Alonso just rot on the bench and watch his value go down when you can get something for him?
Yasmani Grandal, as I mentioned earlier, was expendable. There is no sense in having two young, talented catchers on the same team, because one is going to get the lion's share of work, while the other will get relegated to back-up duties. Most catchers cannot play anywhere else other than first base, in which you already have a MVP manning that position. If you were to keep Alonso, you would have him as the back-up to Votto and Grandal would be third on the depth chart, while being second to Mesoraco behind the plate. Trade him and get something in return. You were able to package those two, along with the enigma that is Edinson Volquez to get Mat Latos, a young arm who is just 24 and has proven it at the big league level already. I already discussed the reasoning behind trading Travis Wood, which falls along similar lines. Like the great bluesman Buddy Guy once said, "you gotta go with what ya know." You know Latos has gotten it done at the big league level, as has Sean Marshall. Alonso and Grandal are still unproven for the most part, while it served no purpose to keep Wood as nothing more than a spot-starter.
Sometimes "all-in" plans do not work. You can look no further than my White Sox from last year to find that out. However, what happened with the Sox last year was basically Murphy's Law working in full effect in Chicago. Almost everything that could go wrong, did go wrong. The bullpen imploded in April and May, Peavy couldn't stay healthy (and when he did, he stunk up the joint), Gordon Beckham continued to regress and John Danks, Adam Dunn and Alex Rios all had the worst years of their career. I just cannot see that happening with the Reds.
The National League is wide open this year, and the pennant is ripe for the taking. I sincerely believe the Reds are good enough to not only win the division, but to take home a NL flag as well.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Blast from the past...from 1976...Pete Rose sings. Oh boy.
No comments:
Post a Comment