Monday, March 12, 2012

Profiling the White Sox: What can we expect?

Another former Sox star will lead the way
for Chicago in 2012, as Robin Ventura will take over as
manager for Ozzie Guillen.
The 2012 season will represent the beginning of a new era for the Chicago White Sox with new manager Robin Ventura. What era will be initiated this year, though? Will it be a continuation of the team spinning its wheels in the mud, stuck in gear? Will this be a return to the salad days of 2005-2006? Perhaps Murphy's Law will come into play, and the team will begin their downward spiral toward ineptitude and irrelevance? Only time will tell.

Right now though, the White Sox are in a sort of bizarre in-between phase as an organization. General Manager Kenny Williams has not made a full commitment to rebuilding, despite his comments that he is about to do so. On the other hand, they do not resemble a contender, especially when you consider their poor finish last year and their collective talent compared to the Detroit Tigers. In order to better assess where the team could potentially finish in 2012, we need to evaluate the team up and down; their strengths, their weaknesses, where we could potentially see them improve and where they will likely regress. First, we'll take a look at their infield before moving on to their other positions.

Team captain Paul Konerko has been the first baseman for the 
Sox since 1999.
Projected 2012 Infield:
1B: Paul Konerko
2B: Gordon Beckham
SS: Alexei Ramirez
3B: Brent Morel

Perhaps the one part of the team the Sox know they can count on is first baseman Paul Konerko. The team captain that Lindy's Sports Magazine described as "regal" is entering his 14th season with the South Siders, and he is coming off another strong season. He completed his second consecutive year with at least a .300 average, 30 homers and 100 RBI, and he finished in the AL's top ten in home runs, RBI and OPS. At age 36, Konerko is peaking, and while I expect him to be somewhere near the numbers he recorded the last two seasons, I also would not be surprised to see him regress a bit, at least in the batting average department.

Another thing that will be fun to follow is Konerko's quest for 400 homers in a Sox uniform. He has 389 in his career with the Pale Hose, and when he reaches that milestone, he will join Frank Thomas as the only two players in team history to reach that plateau. After that, Konerko will only be 48 behind Thomas for the team record, and if he stays healthy, does not get traded, and stays relatively productive, he should have a decent chance of surpassing Thomas in late 2013.

While there are no worries at first base, second base is a completely different story. Gordon Beckham has regressed at a disturbing rate since his solid rookie campaign in 2009, when he hit .270 with 14 homers, 63 RBI and an .808 OPS in just 103 games. In 2011, Beckham fell to .230 with 10 homers, 44 RBI and a .633 OPS. Considering that he was Chicago's first round draft choice in 2008 (eighth pick overall), there were high expectations from him once he entered the majors, and while you could give him a mulligan for the usual "sophomore slump" some big leaguers go through (like he did in 2010), this year could go a long way in determining what kind of player Beckham will become.

Meanwhile at shortstop, there appears to be no worries as Alexei Ramirez enters his fourth big-league season. Even though his batting average dipped 13 points to .269 last year, his power totals remained somewhat steady, finishing with 15 homers, 70 RBI and a .727 OPS. He is not an anchor of the lineup, but he does serve as a good complimentary piece.

Shifting over to third base, the White Sox will enter their second season with the young Brent Morel at the hot corner. He started off slowly last year before heating up during the season's final month, smashing eight of his ten total homers while recording 19 of his 41 RBI during that same time frame. This year will go a long way in determining what direction Morel will be heading.


"The Tank," Dayan Viciedo.
Outfield:
LF: Alejandro De Aza/Kosuke Fukudome
CF: Alex Rios
RF: Dayan Viciedo

The Sox will feature a new look outfield this season, with three new faces added to the mix. Dayan Viciedo will take over in right, while Alejandro De Aza and Kosuke Fukudome look to compete for the other corner spot in the outfield. The only constant is Alex Rios, who will look to rebound from another poor season. Rios, along with Adam Dunn, were the main culprits behind an underachieving offense last year, as he hit only .227 with 13 homers and 44 RBI. Additionally, when you look the sabermetric stat WAR (wins above replacement), Rios actually finished with a -1.5 rating, meaning that the White Sox would have statistically been better off having someone else in the lineup instead of him. Ouch.

Dayan Viciedo (or as Hawk Harrelson calls him, "Tank"), will look to replace the offensive void left by Carlos Quentin, who was dealt to the Padres this past offseason. Viciedo is only 23, and after receiving limited playing time the last two seasons, the young outfielder from Cuba will finally get his opportunity to prove himself. The last two seasons in Triple-A have been very productive for Viciedo, as he recorded 40 home runs in 205 games at that level.

Alejandro De Aza recorded only 171 plate appearances for the Sox last year, but he made the most of them, hitting .329 in that time frame, along with recording a .920 OPS. He also brings a decent level of speed with him, recording 12 steals in 17 attempts last year. He looks to be the lead-off hitter for a team that has yet to produce a legitimate lead-off man since Scott Podsednik's departure three years ago.

Kosuke Fukudome was picked up for cheap by the Sox this offseason, and while he is competing for a spot in the outfield, look for him to be the fourth man in their depth chart this year. He split time between the Cubs and Indians last year, hitting .262 with eight homers and 35 RBI.

Designated Hitter:
Adam Dunn

Oh boy, where do I begin? Let's just say that there is nowhere to go but up for Dunn. The big man was historically awful last year, hitting .159 with 11 homers and 59 RBI, to go along with a dreadful .569 OPS. Along with Rios, Dunn finished with a -1.5 WAR, which means they would have been better off having someone else in the lineup (not that this surprises anyone).

However, he cannot possibly stay that bad, can he? Between 2001 and 2010, Dunn's seasonal averages were .250, 40 HRs, 99 RBI and 111 walks. You may call me crazy, but I'm calling for him to have a comeback season. He may not return to those lofty figures, but don't be surprised if he hits at least 30 dingers this season. I'm looking at the glass half-full here.

This year might be it for Pierzynski's tenure with
the Sox.
Catchers:
A.J. Pierzynski
Tyler Flowers

A mainstay with the South Siders for the last seven years, Pierzynski is entering the final year of his contract, and at age 35, his best years behind the plate are likely behind him. Tyler Flowers looks to be his backup this season, and being ten years younger, is slated to be his successor. Pierzynski has never possessed a cannon behind the plate, but he does possess durability for a catcher, playing at least 125 games in all six seasons in the South Side. Oddly enough, his .287 average ranked as one of the team's best at the plate last year.





John Danks will need to step up as the team's new ace
this season.
Starting Rotation:
John Danks
Gavin Floyd
Jake Peavy
Philip Humber
Chris Sale

The Sox will look to weather the loss of Mark Buehrle, who ranked sixth all-time in team history in victories (161) and seventh in innings pitched (2,476.2). Although Buehrle brought many good memories to Chicago, nothing lasts forever, and the Sox appear to be capable to move on from his departure. John Danks will be the new de facto ace, signing a five-year, $65 million contract during the offseason. He had been pretty solid the last few seasons, but he struggled quite a bit last year, finishing 8-12 with a 4.33 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. Danks has earned the benefit of the doubt from many who watched the team, and he should bounce back this year.

Gavin Floyd was the subject of several trade rumors this past offseason, but it appears that he will stay put for now. The big righty is also looking to bounce back from a poor season, finishing 12-13 with a 4.37 ERA. Oddly enough, his WHIP was 1.16 last year, which was actually lower than some elite pitchers such as Felix Hernandez and CC Sabathia. Many are looking for him to return to the form he displayed in 2008, when he finished 17-8 with a 3.84 ERA.

For the Sox to succeed this season, they will definitely need for Jake Peavy to stay healthy. He has been hampered with injuries the last two seasons, and while it is highly unlikely he will return to his 2007-2008 form, he needs to stay healthy and contribute as a solid number three. The last two years have not been pretty when he has pitched, as he has a 12-13 record with a 4.77 ERA.

Philip Humber was the biggest surprise for their rotation last season, as he was a solid 9-9 with a 3.75 ERA, the lowest figure on the staff. He is projected to be the number four starter, should Peavy remain healthy and productive.

Meanwhile, the 22-year-old Chris Sale will finally enter the rotation this season in the number five spot, giving the youngster his first shot at succeeding as a starter. He was terrific out of the bullpen the last two seasons, finishing with a 2.58 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in his brief career. The Sox looked for him to be a starter when they drafted him out of Florida Gulf Coast University in 2010, and enough chairs have shuffled around on the deck for him to have room to prove himself.

Matt Thornton has been a mainstay of Chicago's
bullpen since 2006.
Bullpen:
Matt Thornton
Jesse Crain
Will Ohman
Addison Reed
Dylan Axelrod
Zach Stewart
Hector Santiago
Gregory Infante

The team has yet to decide on who their closer will be, but they would be better off not having Matt Thornton close games. Thornton is an excellent set-up man, but was dreadful as a closer last year, blowing four saves in April alone before being shifted out of the role in favor of Sergio Santos. In a puzzling decision, the Sox dealt Santos to Toronto in the offseason, meaning they are in search for who their guy will be at the end of games this season. Look for any of the aforementioned eight to be considered.

Overall, Chicago's bullpen ranked as one of baseball's worst last year, recording a 3.88 ERA, 21st in the majors.

Area that will improve: Designated Hitter
As I mentioned above, there cannot possibly be anyway Dunn will continue to perform that badly. There is nowhere to go but up for him.

Area that will regress: Bullpen
When you are entering Spring Training without a closer, that can spell trouble. Hopefully I'm wrong on this one, but that 'pen does not make me too confident heading into this season. I believe they will cost them several games (much like last year) and trading your best reliever during the offseason will not make matters any better.

Final Verdict: 80-82
Some prognosticators may see this team as being terrible, and judging by the amount of disarray and turnover that occurred with this team last year, I do not blame them. However, they still finished 79-83 in spite of everything that went on last year. I do not see them being too much better or worse than they were last year.


Also, for your pleasure, Chuck Garfein of CSN Chicago created this hilarious response to the "Cubs Win MLB 2K12" commercial that's out right now.

No comments:

Post a Comment