Thursday, September 1, 2011

The Strange Case of Ozzie Guillen: Should he stay or should he go?



Dealing with the question of whether or not a franchise icon should stick around is always difficult to approach. Often times, it's because objectivity is thrown out the window, and emotions begin to take control of the decision-making process. You want to show him the door, but how do you do it? After everything he has done for the franchise? Another side of you will think that "ah, it was just a mediocre year, many other teams/players would love to trade places with us. He's worth keeping around." However, where do you draw the line for accountability?

It has reached that point for Ozzie Guillen. Before I get into whether or not he should stick around, keep in mind that Guillen is a major figure in Sox history. He played shortstop for the them from 1985-1997, garnering a Rookie of the Year award in '85, along with a Gold Glove in 1990 and three All-Star appearances. His blue-collar work ethic endeared him to many fans on the South Side, and his temperament seemed like the perfect solution for the Sox's problems following the disappointing 2003 season, when the team parted ways with the laid-back Jerry Manuel. Ozzie was the perfect choice to manage the Sox because the team needed a fiery, aggressive manager and because he was a Sox guy, through-and-through. He understood the mindset of the fanbase and he knew Chicago.

His first season saw injuries to Frank Thomas and Magglio Ordonez, the major catalysts in their offense, and the team limped to an 83-79 finish. However, the Sox did the improbable in 2005, going wire-to-wire and sweeping the World Series, something only two other teams had ever accomplished in major-league history (the 1927 Yankees and the 1990 Reds were the others). The 2006 season began with a considerable amount of promise, as the team stormed to a 57-31 mark by the All-Star break. Unfortunately, the pitching staff was gassed by that point, and the team crumbled to a disappointing 33-41 second half record, finishing 90-72. They would miss the postseason.

Since then, the Sox have been largely mediocre, save for a miserable 2007 campaign in which they lost 90 games. They reached the postseason again in 2008, but nobody was mistaking that team for the 2005 Sox or even the 2000 team.

The accountability that a manager should have for his team's success (or lack thereof) is always tricky to ascertain. Really, the players are the ones who make the manager look smart. Do you think Tony LaRussa has all of the wins he does because he's an exponentially better manager than say, Bruce Bochy? No. It's because Tony always seems to have top-notch talent on his teams (i.e. Mark McGwire, Jose Canseco, Rickey Henderson, Bob Welch, Dave Stewart, Albert Pujols, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Jim Edmonds, etc.). If you go back to Tony's Chicago years, you will find that they are largely unimpressive (except for 1983) because...wait for it....many of his players flat out stunk.

Which brings us back to the dilemma with Ozzie this year. It's easy for people to get on him for the team's lack of success this year. However, can Ozzie make Adam Dunn bat .300? Can Ozzie make Alex Rios hit they way he did last year? Could Ozzie have made his bullpen pitch better than it did to start the season, which is a major contributor to where the team is at now in the standings? A manager cannot go out there and make his players play out of their minds, and really, he is at the mercy of their performances. Ozzie is a great manager, and an even better motivator. Do you believe that the White Sox could have made the comeback they did in 2010 had Ozzie not been a good motivator and had given up on the team?

The Sox have also played decently since the middle of May, fighting back from what could have been the start to an awful year. Unfortunately, the team has not been able to get on an extended hot streak like they did last year to move into first. Is that Ozzie's fault? While I still believe he is a great motivator, you almost have to wonder if he is still getting through to his players. Was he simply dealt a bad hand with the group he has?

Despite his puzzling lineup decisions (Dunn hitting in the middle of the order?!), if the people who were expected to be key contributors actually came through, this wouldn't be an issue. If Dunn were on pace to hit at his career norms (.244 average, 38 homers, 96 RBIs according to Baseball Reference) and if Rios were to have a similar year as last year (.284 average, 21 homers, 88 RBIs, 34 steals) the Sox wouldn't just be in first, they would be running away with the division. Instead Dunn is having a historically bad season, and Rios is reverting to his apathetic style of play he had in his final years in Toronto. Also, the bullpen has a combined 17 blown saves this season, with many of them coming in the first two months of the season (see table below). You think if that number were cut in half, things wouldn't be considerably different with the state of this team? Thankfully, the bullpen stabilized itself after the first couple of months, and they have been nailing it down since.


Nonetheless, the combination of these unfortunate events has likely led Ozzie to lose his patience, which is probably further straining his relationship with GM Kenny Williams. Ozzie is already pressuring the team into extending him beyond 2012, threatening to leave if his wish isn't granted. A public plea for an extension with the team six games back in September will not earn you many supporters. The situation appears that's Ozzie's good as gone, but I'm not so sure another manager could do a better job. The decision to get rid of him is not as easy as some think it is, nor is it a cut-and-dry issue. However, if Ozzie stays or goes, I'm fine either way.

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