Monday, September 20, 2010

AL Cy Young Award candidates: who gets your vote?


We continue our look at the potential award winners of 2010 by taking a glance at the candidates for the American League Cy Young Award.

Stats are as of September 20:


3.) Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
12-11, 2.35 ERA, 222 Ks, 1.07 WHIP

You might be wondering why you're seeing Felix Hernandez in this list. You might even be saying to yourself, "why is a pitcher with a record barely over .500 being considered for the Cy Young?" Well, this is indicative of the changing voting trends among the writers. They no longer look at just part of the package in wins and losses, rather, they look at the pitcher's entire body of work, regardless of his team's place in the standings. The precedent was set with Zack Greinke winning the award last year for the last place-Royals, despite his modest win total of 16.

Nobody disputed the fact that Greinke was the best pitcher in the AL last year, and this year, you can almost make the same case for Hernandez, who is putting together a spectacular year for the last place-Mariners. He is currently leading the AL in ERA with a mark of 2.35, and he is also the league leader in innings pitched (233.2) and strikeouts (222). His walks and hits per innings pitched (aka WHIP) is third in the AL at a spectacular 1.07.

So what's the deal with Hernandez? Why isn't he getting the same amount of publicity that Greinke received in Kansas City last year? Well, as unfair as it might sound, Hernandez did not get off to the blistering start that Greinke got off to last year. Greinke went his first four starts before giving up a single earned run. He also went into July before seeing his ERA rise above two. Hernandez, on the other hand, saw his ERA peak around four in early May, and it has never fallen below two all year. While Hernandez's year is fantastic, it doesn't quite match up to Greinke's dominance in '09, even if "King Felix" is the league leader in several major statistical categories.


2.) David Price, Tampa Bay Rays
17-6, 2.79 ERA, 172 Ks, 1.19 WHIP

In just his second full big league season, David Price is starting to reach the potential that everybody predicted he would get to. He is quickly becoming the ace of the Rays' loaded pitching staff, as he is third in the AL in wins (17), third in ERA (2.79), and is tied for tenth in WHIP with a 1.19 mark. With the season he's having, and with Tampa Bay essentially being assured of a playoff spot, Price has the chance to become the first player in team history to win the Cy Young Award.


1.) CC Sabathia, New York Yankees
20-6, 3.05 ERA, 183 Ks, 1.18 WHIP

Sabathia, in my opinion, has been the top pitcher in the American League this year, and I believe that he will wind up becoming the Yankees' first Cy Young winner in nine years. He reached the 20-win plateau for the first time in his career in his last start against Baltimore back on September 18, and that win also gave him the major-league lead. He is also second in the AL in innings pitched (224.0), sixth in strikeouts (183), sixth in ERA (3.05) and ninth in WHIP (1.18). While Felix Hernandez has him beat in all of the aforementioned categories except for wins, some credit has to be given to Sabathia for putting up comparable numbers in the thick of a pennant race. Sabathia has also had a greater percentage of starts against tougher opponents in the cutthroat American League East, where he had to take on the likes of the Rays, Red Sox, and even the Toronto Blue Jays, who lead the AL in home runs by a whopping 29 over the next best team. While it is not Hernandez's fault that his team is terrible and that his division is sub-par (sans Texas), Sabathia should not be penalized for putting up comparable numbers in the toughest division in baseball.

Check back soon for the NL Cy Young Award candidates!

Sunday, September 19, 2010

Is tweaking the Wild Card format a good idea?


Recently, Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated and Jayson Stark of ESPN were presenting an idea that would alter baseball's current postseason format. Both writers were crediting the idea to Steve Hirdt, of the Elias Sports Bureau, who originally suggested the notion. His concept is to add another Wild Card to the postseason, in order to spice up the races in each league. This idea is coming as a result of the lack of drama in the American League East, where both the Yankees and Rays are essentially assured of a postseason spot, whether it is via the Wild Card or by winning the division title.

Even though the postseason field would be expanded with this idea, the extra "round" would actually be just one game, a Wild Card Elimination game. The two teams with the two best second-place records would play a do-or-die elimination game immediately after the conclusion of the regular season, with the winner going on to play a division winner in the Division Series. Hypothetically speaking, if there was a "Wild Card Elimination Game" last year, it would have featured the Rangers playing the Red Sox in Boston and the Giants playing the Rockies in Colorado. This would also put the Wild Card team at a further disadvantage, since they would likely have to use their best starter in this play-in game, and would have to shuffle their rotation for the next round of postseason play. Also, since they would be the "Wild Card Champion," they would still not have home-field advantage in the Division Series or League Championship Series.

While this idea is certainly fresh and exciting, I can't help but to think how unfair it is. Let's take for example this year's American League race. How fair is it to Tampa Bay (who's roughly on pace to win 98 games) to have to face either the Red Sox or White Sox in an elimination game, despite the fact that they will probably finish with seven or eight more wins than either team? Tampa clearly would have shown that they were the better of the "Wild Card" teams, so why make them have to play their way in? Besides, if the Red Sox or White Sox wanted a fighting chance at a playoff spot, they should have played better in the first 162 games anyway.

Also, this just seems like a knee-jerk reaction to an otherwise lackluster postseason race in the American League. Really, how often is it that all four AL playoff spots are essentially wrapped up with two weeks left in the season? There's no shortage of drama in the National League right now, as the Braves, Phillies, Rockies, Giants and Padres are all battling for the last three playoff spots (the Reds, barring a monumental collapse, are essentially in). In fact, there's only a game and a half that separates first place from third in the NL West. Why would you need to artificially create more drama when it's already there to begin with?

Plus, I kind of like the exclusivity the MLB postseason brings. Only eight teams out of 30 get in. That means you are treated to great baseball more often than not when October rolls around. I wouldn't want to see the playoff field diluted with more teams getting in, even if it is for just one game, or a "best-of-three" series. Besides, why would you want to reward more teams for not finishing in first place? Making the playoffs should still be an accomplishment, not a free-for-all like the NBA or NHL, where 16 out of 30 teams make their way in with both leagues (I'm not saying that I don't like the NBA or NHL, I just don't like their bloated playoff field). It's still a special feeling watching your team celebrate when they make it in, and adding more teams to the mix kind of cheapens the accomplishment for me.

Perhaps the only change I would like to see in baseball's postseason is the one suggested by Angels' manager Mike Scioscia, who is also on Bud Selig's panel for on-field issues. His suggestion was to shorten the regular season by four games to 158, and make the Division Series a best-of-seven. This makes sense to me because the quality of teams that get into the postseason is still generally pretty good, anomalies notwithstanding. Witnessing a best-of-seven first round would make an already exciting postseason format even more compelling to watch. Also, the somewhat-truncated regular-season schedule can allow for the playoffs to be expanded, and for them to end before November. I personally would love to see the powers-that-be try to make this a reality, only as long as the month of November isn't involved.

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

NL MVP candidates: who gets your vote?


Just a few days ago, we took a look at the American League MVP candidates, and who I thought would win it and why. Today, we'll take a look at the MVP candidates in the National League, and who I think is most deserving of the award.

Here are the top three candidates:

Stats are as of September 17:



3.) Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals

.306 batting average, 39 home runs, 105 RBIs, .402 OBP

As usual, Albert Pujols is in the discussion for National League MVP. However, the recent slide of the Cardinals will leave his chances for winning the award very slim. His numbers are still incredible, as he is in the top ten in just about every major statistical offensive category. Unfortunately for him, the team's recent struggles will probably deny him the chance of winning his fourth MVP award.


2.) Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies
.341 batting average, 32 home runs, 106 RBIs, .378 OBP

If the Rockies continue their hot streak and make the postseason, there could be a very good chance that Gonzalez can capture the trophy. It's no coincidence that when he began to heat up in late August, so did the team. Gonzalez leads the NL in batting average and RBIs, and is tied for fourth in home runs with Arizona's Mark Reynolds. He has also accumulated many of his monster numbers since the All-Star break, as his .385 average, 15 home runs and 46 RBIs should suggest. The only argument against him seems to be his ridiculous home and away splits, which look like this:

Home: .392 average, 25 homers, 72 RBIs, .439 OBP

Away: .288 average, 7 homers, 34 RBIs, .310 OBP.

Is he a product of Coors Field? The stats certainly suggest that label. Will the voters be willing to overlook that flaw in Gonzalez's season? If the Rockies make the playoffs, more than a few writers might be swayed to vote in favor of "CarGo."


1.) Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds
.320 batting average, 34 home runs, 104 RBIs, .419 OBP

Right now, Joey Votto is my pick for MVP, if only for the fact that if the season ended today, the Reds would be in the postseason, and the Rockies would be on the outside looking in. Votto has been the leader of an offense this year that has been dismantling National League pitching, as the team's National League-leading 720 runs would suggest. Not only is Votto becoming a more feared hitter at the plate this year (he's third in the NL in walks with 83), but he is also showing off his capabilities of being a complete hitter. Votto is third in the NL in batting average, third in home runs, third in RBIs, and first in on-base percentage. Should the races continue as they are, I believe that Joey Votto will without question be the Reds' first MVP in 15 years.

Check back soon for the American League Cy Young Award candidates!

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

I'll keep this one short and sweet


Tonight, the Sox enter their biggest series of the season, but I suppose you didn't need me to tell you that. With the Sox sitting at 79-64 and six games behind the Twins entering tonight, they will need to sweep the series to even have a remote chance of making a comeback. Even then, trailing by three games with 16 left to play is still a tall mountain to climb, but I'm sure the Sox would rather take their chances with that. Here's how the pitching matchups look for this series:

Tonight: John Danks (13-10, 3.54) vs. Francisco Liriano (13-7, 3.24)
Wednesday: Gavin Floyd (10-12, 3.91) vs. Brian Duensing (8-2, 2.02)
Thursday: Mark Buehrle (12-10, 3.99) vs. Carl Pavano (16-11, 3.47)

Needless to say, I'm pretty confident about the chances of the Sox pulling off a sweep. I know it's a tall order, and it might even be a fantasy, but crazier things have happened. I'm not giving up hope just yet. Let's go Sox!

Monday, September 13, 2010

AL MVP candidates: who gets your vote?


Well, the pennant races are finally hitting the home stretch, and it is at this time of year that we usually find out who the league MVPs are. Who are the players that put their team on their back throughout the season, and carried them through the thick of the pennant race? If you took that particular player off of a contender, would that team be in the position they are in? Those are the questions that voters usually look at when it comes to who deserves the recognition of the "Most Valuable Player." Tonight, we'll take a look at the top three candidates in the American League.

Stats are as of September 13.


3.) Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers
.335 batting average, 34 home runs, 116 RBIs, .429 OBP

Cabrera is arguably having the best all-around season of the three players listed here this year. His 116 RBIs and .429 OBP both lead the American League, while his batting average and home runs rank second and third respectively. If the Tigers were having a better season, he would definitely be the runaway pick for the MVP. Unfortunately for him, and for the Tigers and their fans, this summer has not been kind to them, as their 72-72 record would attest. The fact that the Tigers are not in contention right now will be the only reason Miguel Cabrera won't win the MVP.



2.) Paul Konerko, Chicago White Sox

.322 batting average, 36 home runs, 104 RBIs, .399 OBP

I know many of you out there may think this is a heavily biased pick, but just hear me out on this one. Konerko has been raking for the Sox all year, and this year is turning out to be a career one for "Paulie." He's currently fifth in the AL in batting average, second in home runs, tied for fourth in RBIs with Vladimir Guerrero, and is fifth in on-base percentage. Here's a potential dilemma with Konerko's case though: the Sox still have a very decent shot at missing the playoffs, and still finishing with a better record than the Texas Rangers (they're only one game worse than Texas right now). The thing that could hurt Konerko's MVP chances is similar to Miguel Cabrera's in nature, but at the same time more unfair. With the way the Twins are rolling right now, they still have an outside shot at finishing with the best record in the AL, something completely out of the control of Konerko and the Sox. Should Konerko get penalized by the voters only for the reason that the Sox have a much tougher divisional foe than Josh Hamilton's Rangers do? I don't think so, but that's what usually happens in cases like these. C'est la vie.



1.) Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers
.361 batting average, 31 home runs, 97 RBIs, .414 OBP

The only reason why I still think Hamilton deserves the MVP over Konerko is because his overall numbers are better. While he trails Konerko in home runs by five and in RBIs by seven, he is still outhitting him by 39 points, and has a higher OBP by 15 points. I also believe that defense should come into play when comparing the two, and while Konerko is very underrated as a defender at first base, Hamilton plays a much more demanding position in the outfield. He still excels defensively, while putting on a great performance at the plate, too. I don't want to compare the two team's positions in the standings, because that would be unfair to both Konerko and Hamilton. In a case like this, you just look at each individual player and what they bring to their team, and in this case, Hamilton edges Konerko, both offensively and defensively.

Check back soon for the NL MVP candidates!

Saturday, September 4, 2010

What on earth is happening to the San Diego Padres?


Earlier this afternoon, the San Diego Padres fell at home to the Colorado Rockies by a score of 6-2 to lose their ninth consecutive game. The Friars, in that time span, have seen their six game lead dwindle down to just a meager 2.5 games pending the outcome of the Giants/Dodgers game later this evening. This substantial slide has made many people wonder if this is indeed it for the Padres, who have basically been baseball's version of "The Little Engine That Could" the entire season.

Around the beginning of the season, many prognosticators (myself included) had the Padres tabbed for a last-place finish in the National League West. In fact, you might have been lucky to see anyone who had them picked to finish above fourth place this year. However, one of the beautiful things about baseball is that when you watch the season unfold, you always have the chance to see something unexpected happen, and the Padres have been a prime example of this. They have shocked everybody in the baseball world up to this point by not only contending, but by leading the National League West for the majority of the season over heavy favorites like the Giants, Rockies and Dodgers.

The Padres are not a flashy team, and they certainly are not a team that lends itself to excitement. In today's homer-happy culture in baseball, the Padres are decidedly different than most teams, as they are absolutely reliant on their pitching to win them ballgames. Their starting rotation that features Mat Latos, Jon Garland, Clayton Richard, Kevin Correia and Wade LeBlanc is arguably the best in baseball in 2010, and those who would even bother to argue against that are likely just playing devil's advocate. Their starting pitching had to be the best in the game this year in order for this team to survive, since their 579 runs scored as a team ranks 12th in the National League and 21st overall in MLB. Their starting staff has not only met many people's expectations, they have went above and beyond them.

The starting staff cannot do it all by themselves though. The Friars have featured the best bullpen in all of baseball by far this year, with a fearsome trio of Luke Gregerson, Mike Adams and Heath Bell closing out games. With the combination of a rock-solid starting rotation and a bullpen that slams the door shut on rallies time and time again, it's no wonder why the Padres have the best team ERA in baseball at 3.36.

However, this team has had their fair share of detractors and non-believers this season. They'll point out the fact that their starters are overachieving, their bullpen is being overworked, and that their lineup is anemic, even with Adrian Gonzalez. All throughout the season, they have been waiting for the other shoe to drop with this team, and for most of the time, they have been coming away disappointed. Now that the Padres are suffering through their worst slump of the season, everybody- supporters and detractors alike- is eagerly waiting to see what will become of baseball's biggest surprise this season. Do the Padres have the intestinal fortitude to snap out of this slump and ride on to the postseason, or has midnight finally struck for this Cinderella team? They still have a whopping seven games left with second-place San Francisco, including the final three games of the season at AT&T Park in early October. When looking at the glass half-full, you could say that this slump is just a prelude to what could be a fantastic finish in the NL West. In the meantime, I'll just hope that this is nothing more than just a temporary slump for the Padres. Besides, what fun would a pennant race be if you didn't have the twists and turns that come with it?